UFC on ABC 7: B/R Main Card Staff Predictions
UFC on ABC 7: B/R Main Card Staff Predictions0 of 6
Cory Sandhagen prepares to fight Rob FontJeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
The UFC is headed back to Abu Dhabi this Saturday, and it’s bringing along a Fight Night card that is arguably better than some of its recent pay-per-views.
Headlining honors for the show will go to a clash of top bantamweight contenders, with No. 2-ranked Cory Sandhagen taking on the unbeaten Umar Nurmagomedov, who’s currently ranked No. 10. It’s a compelling matchup on paper, and the winner will most likely receive the next shot at the winner of Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili’s upcoming bantamweight title fight.
The co-main event will be contested at middleweight, where fan-favorite Russian striker Shara Magomedov will look to take another big step towards the rankings opposite Polish bruiser Michal Oleksiejczuk.
Before that, former flyweight champ Deiveson Figueiredo will look to make it 3-0 at bantamweight at the expense of former title challenger Marlon “Chito” Vera. Lightweight legend Tony Ferguson will also be back in action, looking to correct a seven-fight skid in a welterweight fight with Michael Chiesa.
The main card will be kicked off by a strawweight fight between Mackenzie Dern and Lupita Godinez, and a lightweight fight between Joel Alvarez and Elves Brener.
There’s no way to know how it will all go down until the show gets underway, but as always, the B/R combat sports squad has you covered for pre-fight predictions.
Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov1 of 6
Umar Nurmagomedov kicks Bekzat AlmakhanJeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Haris Kruskic: The winner of this fight could be next in line for a shot at the winner of Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili.
Corey Sandhagen returns to action after tearing his triceps in a win over Rob Font last year. He takes on Umar Nurmagomedov who no one has willingly lined up to fight since he entered the UFC in 2021. This is the Russian’s first-ranked opponent despite a 17-0 record.
I just have a feeling Nurmagomedov finally gets the marquee win he’s been looking for. Sandhagen has been a mainstay atop the bantamweight division for years now, but Umar is a more technical and precise striker. It’ll be a fantastic stand-up fight that Nurmagomedov just edges out.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov by split decision
Tom Taylor: Cory Sandhagen has been a top bantamweight for years, but has yet to challenge for the division’s undisputed belt. That will most likely change if he’s able to thwart the unbeaten Umar Nurmagomedov in Abu Dhabi, and I would love to see it happen, but it seems like a bit of a long shot.
I see Sandhagen having some success on the feet in this fight — and a knockout is not out of the question — but I suspect Nurmagomedov will land plenty of his striking offense too. The Russian also has some solid grappling to fall back on, and that’s an area where Sandhagen has occasionally struggled in the past.
In my mind, a few Nurmagomedov takedowns make the difference in a close fight that is contested mostly on the feet.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Hard to disagree with either of my guys on this one. Sandhagen arrives with three straight wins and has faced some high-end guys across a 13-fight run in the UFC, so if it’s a matchup of octagonal street cred to this point, he wins. But it seems more likely to evolve into a ground slog at some point, and that’s Nurmagomedov’s path to success.
It may not be pretty or dominant. But it’ll be clear.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov by unanimous decision
Shara Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk2 of 6
Shara Magomedov prepares to face Antonio TrocoliChris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Haris Kruskic: Shara Magomedov has failed to live up to the hype in his two UFC fights despite winning both. There’s a clear hole in his game on the ground that will inevitably haunt him.
Although Michal Oleksiejczuk has an average UFC record of 7-6, his best attributes come from grappling. He has a good chin, an underrated ground-and-pound, and has faced much scarier tests than Magomedov. I’m calling the upset here.
Prediction: Oleksiejczuk by TKO, Rd. 2
Tom Taylor: The UFC clearly sees some superstar potential in Shara Magomedov, and it’s easy to understand why: he’s got a fan-friendly striking style, and has one of the most interesting looks of any fighter in MMA. However, I’m not sold on him as a serious middleweight contender. As Haris said, there are some glaring holes in his ground game, and that’s going to be a big problem when he starts running into the division’s top fighters.
Thankfully for him, Oleksiejczuk is not quite a top middleweight. The Polish veteran probably has enough of a grappling edge to derail Magomedov’s hype train on the mat, but he can strike, and will most likely opt to settle this one on the feet. That won’t end well for him.
Prediction: Magomedov by TKO, Rd. 1
Lyle Fitzsimmons: I concur with both teammates in their collective assessments of Magomedov, who’s been underwhelming in wins over Bruno Silva and Antonio Trocoli upon arrival to the promotion. He’s got an interesting look. He’s got obvious potential. And he’s particularly fortunate here in that he’s matched up with Oleksiejczuk, who’s perfectly suited for the role of MMA jobber here as the Russian gets over big. Hanging with Tom.
Prediction: Magomedov by TKO, Rd. 1
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Marlon Vera3 of 6
Deiveson Figueiredo reacts after submitting Cody Garbrandt Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Haris Kruskic: This fight features two more bantamweights looking to sneak into the title conversation.
Deiveson Figueiredo has looked excellent since moving up to bantamweight last year, beating Rob Font and Cody Garbrandt. Even when he was the UFC flyweight champ, he seemed destined for 135 pounds given his many weight-cut struggles.
Chito Vera looks to bounce back from his title fight loss to O’Malley in March, and I think he’ll do so. Figueiredo struggled in his bouts vs. Brandon Moreno largely because of terrific counter-striking. Vera is just as good at it and bigger than Moreno.
Prediction: Vera by unanimous decision
Tom Taylor: This is a tough fight to call. I would say Figueiredo is probably a more skilled fighter overall than “Chito,” but he will also be at a notable size disadvantage in this fight, and will surely learn that it is almost impossible to finish the Ecuadorian on the feet or the canvas.
The key factor for me is that Chito is known for his slow starts and his low output. In a three-round fight with a speedy, high-output striker like Figueiredo, that could be a problem. I suspect both fighters will land some big shots, but by the time three rounds are up, Figueiredo will have landed a lot more, and the judges will side with him because of it.
Prediction: Figueiredo by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: To me, this is two guys heading in opposite directions. As Haris noted, Figueiredo has looked like a renewed force since eating a few sandwiches and climbing the ladder to 135 pounds. Meanwhile, Vera’s best headline coming out of the title duel with O’Malley was just how much punishment he was able to take in a valiant but losing cause. That makes this feel like something less than an ideal spot for “Chito.”
Prediction: Figueiredo by unanimous decision
Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Chiesa4 of 6
Tony Ferguson looks on in a lightweight fight against Paddy PimblettSean M. Haffey/Getty Images
Haris Kruskic: Once again, Tony Ferguson is fighting a superior, larger grappler. What could go wrong?
Now Michael Chiesa isn’t exactly coming into this fight with any momentum of his own considering his last win came in 2021, but his grappling should be enough to drag this fight into a decision and hopefully Ferguson into retirement.
Prediction: Chiesa by unanimous decision
Tom Taylor: I can’t blame anybody for having lost all faith in Tony Ferguson. While he was once one of the best lightweights in the world, he has now lost seven straight, and could well suffer another loss this weekend, which would probably end his career.
However, I’ve got a strange feeling about this one. Even in his current condition, Ferguson has some great jiu-jitsu, and despite being known for his grappling offense, Chiesa has pretty poor submission defense. He’s been submitted five times as a pro. That includes three losses by D’arce choke — the same submission Ferguson has used to win three fights. You can see where I’m going with this…
Yes, I’m backing Ferguson to finally turn things around in Abu Dhabi.
Prediction: Ferguson by submission, Rd. 2
Lyle Fitzsimmons: I guess we’ll keep marching this version of Tony Ferguson out there, complete with new narratives about new training camp strategies, until he finds a level of an opponent with whom he can contend. It’s been five years and seven opponents since his last victory and the search now turns up Chiesa, who’s 0-3 since beating Neil Magny and has spent his best days since January 2021 as an analyst.
Yippee. Score one for the Ferguson fans.
Prediction: Ferguson by unanimous decision
Mackenzie Dern vs. Loopy Godinez5 of 6
Amanda Lemos exchanges strikes with Mackenzie DernSean M. Haffey/Getty Images
Haris Kruskic: Unsure what to make of either of these fighters. Mackenzie Dern has had the same grappling-oriented fight style for the six years she’s been in the UFC. Loopy Godinez will often look the part of a legitimate contender but then lose a fight she probably shouldn’t.
I’ll go with Godinez just because she can win in more ways than Dern can.
Prediction: Godinez by unanimous decision
Tom Taylor: When I look at this matchup, the big questions are whether Dern can get Godinez to the ground, and whether Godinez can survive Dern’s submission attempts if the fight hits the canvas. I’m not super confident about it, but I think Godinez can deny enough of Dern’s takedowns to turn this into a striking match, and if she can, she should be able to win decisively.
For all her skill in the jiu-jitsu department, Dern is still a mediocre striker who can easily be exposed on the feet.
Prediction: Godinez by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: I can’t pretend to have any pertinent information as to why Dern will buck the predicting trend and win this one, but I’m feeling contrarian. The camera-friendly Brazilian is an ace when she gets things to the ground and I believe she will. Godinez has won six of eight and there’s plenty of reason to ride with those numbers, but Dern could be considered as good or better than anyone she’s beaten in that run.
Prediction: Dern by submission, Rd. 2
Joel Alvarez vs. Elves Brener6 of 6
Joel Alvarez kicks Marc DiakieseChris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Haris Kruskic: These are two exciting lightweights to keep an eye on. Both go for the finish and are allergic to boring fights.
Joel Alvarez looked well on his way to being the next surging 155-pound contender before being stopped in his tracks by Arman Tsarukyan in 2022. Although he had to take a step back after that, I still believe he’s technical enough to win this fight against a powerhouse like Brener.
Prediction: Alvarez by submission, Rd. 3
Tom Taylor: This is definitely going to be a fun fight, no matter who wins. Brener and Alvarez have 28 submission wins combined, and can both do big damage on the feet too.
It would not be surprising to see either guy walk away with a bonus-winning finish, but I think Alvarez is the safer pick. He seems to be a little more technical and has also faced superior competition. He’ll find a way to get it done.
Prediction: Alvarez by submission, Rd. 2
Lyle Fitzsimmons: This is indeed a fun way to start the main card. A couple of guys throw a lot and land a lot while standing, and they can handle themselves when it gets horizontal as well. Alvarez has scored three submissions since arriving in UFC, so while Brener has notched a highlight or two in his stay as well, Alvarez has more paths.
Prediction: Alvarez by submission, Rd. 1
