UFC Vegas 103 Gambling Preview: Should Manel Kape being a betting favorite over Asu Almabayev?
The UFC returns to the APEX for UFC Vegas 103 this weekend, headlined by a short-notice flyweight fight between Manel Kape and Asu Almabayev. Kape was supposed to face Brandon Royval in a No. 1 contender matchup, but now thatās thrown into question as the two surging flyweights duke it out atop a thoroughly forgettable fight card. Still, plenty of fights means plenty of chances to make some money.
All odds are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Single Plays
Asu Almabayev (+176)
Iām surprised the line is this big on Saturdayās main event. I know Kape is a fan favorite and Almabayev is stepping in on short notice, but this is a tough stylistic matchup for āStarboy.ā Almabayev is the exact sort of hard-nosed grinder that can ground Kapeās dangerous striking game, and though Kape has improved on the floor, he still gives up plenty of takedowns. Muhammad Mokaev won a decision over Kape with repeated takedowns, and though Almabayev isnāt the same level of athlete as Mokaev, heās the more developed ground fighter at this stage. If Almabayev has the gas to go 25 minutes, I think he wins this one outright.
Cody Brundage (+110)
Similar to the main event, I donāt really know why Brundage isnāt the favorite in his co-main event fight with Julian Marquez. Marquez is on a three-fight losing streak and has consistently shown an inability to wrestle defensively. If Marquez doesnāt land a guillotine choke, Brundage should be able to control this fight, and if Brundage falls headlong into that, Iāll be surprised. The man has been submitted before but Marquez is a far cry from Bo Nickal and Rodolfo Vieira on the floor.
Andrea Lee (+168)
This one is probably really stupid, but I canāt help it. Lee takes on JJ Aldrich in a prelim bout on Saturday and she should win. The reason Lee is an underdog is sheās currently on a five-fight losing streak. Thatās tough, but a few of those fights couldāve gone either way and Aldrich simply isnāt good. Lee can outwork Aldrich on the feet and has the superior wrestling skills to mix things up. If it werenāt for the losing streak, Lee would be a favorite.
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Prop Bets
Mario Pinto by KO/TKO (-145)
Pinto makes his UFC debut on Saturday against Austen Lane and heās a prospect to watch. Off the most reason season of Contender Series, Pinto was one of my favorite fighters and I comped him to Alex Pereira because heās a big dude with poise who hits really hard. And what do you know, thatās the recipe to beat Lane. In his 19-fight career, Lane has lost 5 times, all by knockout, and five of Pintoās nine career wins are by KO. A+B=C ā Pinto by KO.
Danny Barlow vs. Sam Patterson Under 1.5 Rounds (-110)
In my Contender Series breakdown of Barlow, I noted that he doesnāt care much about defense. Well, that lines up well against Patterson who is also looking to end things quickly. Five of Barlowās eight career fights have ended in the first while eight of Pattersonās 15 have done the same, including three in a row for āThe Future.ā This one should be short.
Wrap Up
No parlay this week as there arenāt a lot of lines I like out there and the best gimmick parlay is a Portugal Parlay with Kape and Pinto, but since Iām backing Almabayev, thatās a nonstarter.
We kept things small last week and still fell short. If only Cejudo had taken the No-Contest, things might have been different, but alas, here we are. Better luck this week, hopefully.
Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!
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