Upcoming 2024 MLB Free Agents Boosting Their Stock the Most
Kerry Miller@@kerrancejamesFeatured Columnist IVAugust 11, 2024Upcoming 2024 MLB Free Agents Boosting Their Stock the Most0 of 9
Baltimore’s Anthony SantanderRon Jenkins/Getty Images
For some Major League Baseball players, a contract year can be just the motivation necessary for an incredible campaign.
We’ve identified nine guys who have spent the past four-plus months playing their way into a much more lucrative trip to free agency than expected.
This isn’t simply a ranking of who is going to get paid the most in free agency this offseason. Rather, these are the players who picked the perfect time to have one of the best seasons of their careers and appear destined for much bigger paydays than we would have guessed five months ago.
There’s some overlap between the two groups, but there’s a pretty clear differentiation.
Corbin Burnes, for instance, is having a great season and is likely going to be the highest-paid pitcher in free agency this winter. However, that was already true before the season began, and he has merely kept the status quo with a slightly better ERA than usual. Thus, he’s not on this list.
Conversely, pitchers like Jack Flaherty and Sean Manaea have improved from guys that no one wanted to sign to a long-term deal one year ago to pitchers that figure to command multi-year deals with salaries north of $20 million.
Players are presented in alphabetical order by last name.
Jack Flaherty, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers1 of 9
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2024 Stats: 118.1 IP, 2.97 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 11.4 K/9, 3.0 bWAR
The big question when it comes to Jack Flaherty’s market in free agency is how legitimate the Yankees’ medical history concerns.
If you missed that fracas around the trade deadline, the Yankees almost traded for Flaherty, but backed out at the last minute after viewing his medical records.
Which part of his medical history they had a problem with is unclear. (Also unclear: Why they’re worried about this two-month rental when they didn’t have medical history concerns when they gave Carlos Rodón $162M two winters ago.)
Flaherty missed a couple of starts this summer with lower back soreness. He also missed several months in 2021 with an oblique injury, as well as most of 2022 with a shoulder issue. And though he was mostly healthy in 2023, he simply wasn’t the same ace-caliber pitcher he used to be.
Perhaps they were worried he would regress to that down the stretch, and there may be teams worried this winter about his long-term health before they go signing the 28-year-old to a contract that could turn painful in a hurry.
But let’s just say it’s not going to be a repeat of this past winter, when Flaherty took a one-year, $14M deal with the Tigers before becoming the hottest commodity on the trade block.
That’s because Flaherty has been nothing short of dominant this season, with marks nearly identical to what Corbin Burnes put up in 2022, or what Flaherty himself accomplished back in 2019.
Unless he crashes and burns down the stretch with the Dodgers or unless the medical history becomes a major problem this winter, Flaherty might sign the largest contract this offseason among pitchers not named Burnes. A nine-figure deal is a very real possibility here.
Teoscar Hernández, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers2 of 9
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2024 Stats: .269/.333/.499, 25 HR, 75 RBI, 3.0 bWAR
After hitting .275 with 99 home runs and a slugging percentage just a shade under .500 from 2020-23, Teoscar Hernández should have gotten a better, longer-term payday last winter. He just had the misfortune of hitting free agency at the wrong time amid Regional Sports Networks and had to settle for a one-year, $23M deal. (We should all be so unfortunate, eh?)
On that one-year deal, though, he is having a banger of a season.
Hernández was named an All-Star for the second time in his career, where he also made national waves by winning the Home Run Derby.
He can’t hold a candle to what Shohei Ohtani is doing, but he has been every bit as valuable to the Dodgers’ cause as Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts, and even more important than Will Smith.
And if you’ve ever worried about the derby ruining a player’s swing for the second half of the season, Hernández has effectively debunked that myth. He hit six home runs with a 1.012 OPS over his first 17 games of the second half, this after posting a .664 OPS with one home run in his final 18 games of the first half.
Despite Ohtani’s presence on the roster making it impossible for Hernández to get the occasional “day off” as a DH, he has started darn near every game in the outfield for the Dodgers, coming on the heels of playing 160 games for the Mariners.
That combination of power and durability should make him a hot commodity.
Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies3 of 9
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2024 Stats: 49.0 IP, 2.02 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 12.3 K/9, 1.5 bWAR
Last year was proof that Jeff Hoffman can pitch when not subjected to the worst pitching conditions imaginable.
After spending his first five seasons in the majors with the Colorado Rockies followed by two years with the Cincinnati Reds, Hoffman had career per 9IP ratios of 9.7 hits, 4.5 walks and 8.3 strikeouts and an ERA of 5.68.
He was non-tendered by the Reds in November 2022 and given a spring training invitation with the Twins—where he did pitch well, but evidently not well enough to earn a spot in their bullpen.
Minny’s loss was Philly’s gain, as Hoffman blossomed into the most trusted member of the Phillies bullpen by the end of 2023, even tossing six scoreless innings of relief across his five appearances in the NLCS against Arizona.
And until a four-run implosion about a week ago against the Mariners, he was emphatically better in year No. 2 in Philadelphia.
At the end of July, Hoffman had a 0.98 ERA for the year, had been named an All-Star and seemed to have supplanted José Alvarado as the primary closer. Save situations have been few and far between for them lately, but he is presumably still the reliever they trust the most.
If you’re curious what the market might be for a reliever who struggled for seven seasons with the Rockies and Reds before finding his way for two years in ballparks that weren’t seemingly built for the sole purpose of launching home runs, look no further than Robert Stephenson—who was traded for Hoffman in November 2020, by the way.
In just under 300 career innings for Cincinnati/Colorado, Stephenson had an ERA of 4.97. After finally breaking free of those shackles, he had a 3.15 ERA and averaged 13 K/9 in 65.2 IP between Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay, resulting in a three-year, $33M deal with the Angels last winter.
Hoffman has been even better than Stephenson was, though, so the reliever who will turn 32 in January might be headed for something even more lucrative.
Sean Manaea, LHP, New York Mets4 of 9
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2024 Stats: 120.0 IP, 3.30 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 2.1 bWAR
After a combined ERA of 4.73 over the past two seasons with the Padres and Giants, Sean Manaea took a two-year, $28M deal with the Mets this past winter.
Barring some sort of major injury down the stretch, though, it’s already a foregone conclusion he’ll be declining the player option on the second year in pursuit of a bigger offer after what has been the best season of his career.
Manaea has been especially impressive over his last eight starts, going 48.2 innings with a 2.03 ERA. He did not once pitch into the seventh inning in his first 15 starts with the Mets, but he finished seven innings in four of those recent outings, including going seven shutout innings in each of his last two starts.
If he continues to pitch well and helps guide the Mets into the postseason, even better for his contract potential.
Manaea will turn 33 in February, so he’s no spring chicken. However, we’ve seen pitchers sign massive contracts at several years older than that, so it shouldn’t be a deal-breaker.
In each of the past three offseasons, there have been at least four starting pitchers who signed multi-year deals worth more than $20M per season. That includes Chris Bassitt, who was one year older than Manaea when he hit the open market.
Could Manaea be part of this year’s $20M+ club?
Tyler O’Neill, OF, Boston Red Sox5 of 9
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2024 Stats: .268/.357/.544, 22 HR, 45 RBI, 2.3 bWAR
With Tyler O’Neill, staying healthy always has been half the battle.
Unfortunately, this season has been no different, sidelined by a concussion in April, knee inflammation in late May and now a lower-leg infection.
They’ve all been short-term injuries, though. And at least when he has been healthy this season, he has performed at a high level.
Despite the concussion, O’Neill had nine home runs by the end of April and was one of the way-too-early candidates for AL MVP. His .900 OPS ranks among the best in the majors, and is a far cry from the .707 mark he put up over the previous two seasons combined. Rather, it has been much more in line with the .912 OPS he had during a mostly healthy 2021 campaign that resulted in a Gold Glove and a top 10 finish in the NL MVP vote.
O’Neill’s peak in 2021 wasn’t nearly as high as Cody Bellinger’s was when he won NL MVP in 2019, but their respective career trajectories heading into free agency are pretty similar.
Belly bounced back in a big way from three rough, banged-up seasons and ended up with a three-year, $80M deal with player options on the latter two years. O’Neill’s AAV won’t be quite that high, but a three-year, $60M contract is plausible for the 29-year-old who isn’t even making $6M this year.
Jurickson Profar, OF, San Diego Padres6 of 9
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2024 Stats: .300/.396/.491, 19 HR, 71 RBI, 2.8 bWAR
The last two offseasons were rough for Jurickson Profar.
After betting on himself and declining a $7.5M player option with the Padres in Nov. 2022, it wasn’t until March 19 that he finally signed his one-year, $7.75M deal with the Rockies.
Then, after a horrific run with Colorado, Profar went back to San Diego in mid-February on a one-year, $1M contract.
Even for a team absolutely desperate for outfielders after trading away both Juan Soto and Trent Grisham in early December, it took more than two months for San Diego to take what was basically a league-minimum flyer on Profar.
Holy return on investment, though.
Profar has been San Diego’s most valuable hitter, leading the team in both home runs and OPS and leading the National League in on-base percentage.
For the first time in his 11-year career, Profar was named an All-Star. Not just an All-Star, either, but a starter in the midsummer classic. And at some point in the next week or so, he’s going to set new career highs for both home runs and RBI in a single season.
For as long as he has been around, though, Profar is still only 31 years old.
He’s not going to get a mega deal, but he could get a 4,000 percent increase on a three-year, $40M contract.
Anthony Santander, OF, Baltimore Orioles7 of 9
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2024 Stats: .245/.308/.533, 34 HR, 78 RBI, 2.7 bWAR
With a double-dinger day against the Blue Jays this past Wednesday, Anthony Santander both matched and exceeded his previous best single-season homer total, while also moving into a tie with Shohei Ohtani for the second-most home runs in the majors.
Who knew, right?
We’ve been so fixated on Gunnar Henderson, Corbin Burnes, Baltimore’s breakout rookies and the eternally razor-thin races for both the AL East crown and the No. 1 seed in the postseason that Santander playing second fiddle to Aaron Judge in the homers department hasn’t gotten anywhere near the amount of attention that it should.
Rest assured, though, the long list of teams on the hunt for a corner outfielder this winter have made note of Santander’s production.
He also hit 28 home runs in 2023 and 33 the year before that, putting him at 95 over the past three seasons. Frankly, his numbers over that time (1,772 PA, .249/.319/.484, 95 HR, 20.3 K%) aren’t much different from Pete Alonso’s (1,836 PA, .244/.333/.497, 109 HR, 21.0 K%), and Santander is only about seven weeks older than the Polar Bear.
That isn’t to say they’re destined to end up with similar deals, but Santander sure did pick a fantastic time for a career year. He might finish with 45 home runs and a long-term deal even more lucrative than the eight-year, $162M contract Brandon Nimmo inked two winters ago.
Tanner Scott, LHP, San Diego Padres8 of 9
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2024 Stats: 49.1 IP, 1.46 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, 3.3 bWAR
Per Baseball Reference, Tanner Scott was already the most valuable relief pitcher in the majors in 2023 with a WAR of 3.6. Whether serving as the closer or in a set-up capacity, his 74 relief appearances were perhaps the No. 1 reason those Marlins made it into the postseason despite a negative-57 run differential.
That fantastic campaign came after two kind of terrible years, though.
Between 2021-22, Scott had a 4.71 ERA and 1.59 WHIP, either walking (83) or plunking (10) more than 17 percent of the 540 batters he faced. He did save 20 games in 2022, but he also blew seven saves. And if he had reverted to that sort of replacement-level production in 2024, what he did last season would have been viewed as an anomaly as opposed to the standard against which his contract in free agency ought to be based.
Suffice it to say, that hasn’t been the case. Scott has been even better than he was in 2023, once again rating as the most valuable reliever.
His walk rate 5.5 BB/9 hasn’t been great, to say the least. But that blue mark in what is otherwise a sea of red on his Baseball Savant profile is a serious “That little guy? I wouldn’t worry about that little guy” situation.
With just one HBP and nary a wild pitch (compared to 13 of the latter in 2021-22), it’s much more “occasionally misses when he’s painting” than the “are we sure he can see the plate?” way things were 2-3 years ago.
Can’t imagine he’s going to get Josh Hader or Edwin DÃaz money, but something on par with the four-year, $58M deal Raisel Iglesias got during the 2021-22 offseason is feasible.
Juan Soto, OF, New York Yankees9 of 9
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2024 Stats: .305/.431/.584, 28 HR, 79 RBI, 6.8 bWAR
Almost regardless of what happened this season, Juan Soto was going to get paid an exorbitant sum of money this winter. That’s because in addition to having the fourth-highest OPS in all of baseball from 2018-23—trailing just Mike Trout, Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez with a mark of .946—Soto has yet to even celebrate his 26th birthday.
The Nationals tried to give him a 15-year, $440 million contract two years ago. They traded him away shortly after he turned it down.
The Padres subsequently opted to just get what they could for one year of Soto’s services, knowing they would never be able to find enough money to win the impending bidding war.
Somehow, though, Soto has exceeded expectation, on track for a career-best mark in both runs and home runs with what would be the highest OPS he has ever posted in a 162-game season.
And just so we’re clear: It ain’t because of the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium. As of Saturday morning, Soto’s OPS on the road (1.022) was actually better than his OPS at home (1.007).
Whatever your guess was three months ago as to what Soto would get this offseason, might want to tack another 10 percent onto that.
At this point, it is extremely likely the present-day value of Soto’s contract will exceed the $460M present-day value of the deal Shohei Ohtani signed last winter.
It’s really just a question of which of the two New York teams is more willing to make him the highest-paid player in baseball.
