Utah vs. Texas Tech Preview: Head-to-Head, PFSN Grades, and Prediction for College Football Week Four

By advanced metrics, both the Utah Utes and the Texas Tech Red Raiders are having incredible seasons. The only legitimate quip towards either team is that they lack strength of schedule. Unfortunately, this game won’t prove either team to be legit until more games are played, as it could end up as two bad teams on the same level.

Regardless of which case it is, this game is still going to be absolutely fantastic to watch. Using a blend of PFSN’s proprietary Impact scores and my own analysis, I will break down how I expect this game to go.

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Utah Utes vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Date: Saturday, Sept. 20th, 2025
Game time: 12:00 p.m. ET
Location: Rice-Eccles, Salt Lake City, Utah
Predicted Weather at Kick: 79°F, Partly Cloudy, 9 MPH Winds
How To Watch: Fox, YouTube TV

Utah vs. Texas Tech Head-to-Head Record
Texas Tech and Utah have faced each other just twice in college football history. In 1972 and 1973, the Red Raiders came out on top with victories of 45-2 and 29-22. In the future, I expect this matchup to happen a lot more often with both of them rising to the top of the Big 12.

Utah vs. Texas Tech Grades
PFSN College OFFi

Utah (93.5, A)
Texas Tech (90.6, A-)

PFSN College DEFi

Utah (89.8, B+)
Texas Tech (89.7, B+)

PFSN College OLi

Utah (95.5, A)
Texas Tech (86.4, B)

PFSN College QBi

Devon Dampier, Utah (88.4, B+)
Behren Morton, Texas Tech (85.2, B)

PFSN College RBi

NaQuari Rogers, Utah (83.4, B)
Cameron Dickey, Texas Tech (76.5, C)

PFSN College WRi

Ryan Davis, Utah (78.1, C+)
Coy Eakin, Texas Tech (83.3, B)

PFSN College TEi

Hunter Andrews, Utah (84.3, B)
Terrence Carter Jr., Texas Tech (87.3, B+)

PFSN College EDGEi

John Henry Daley, Utah (93.4, A)
David Bailey, Texas Tech (94.9, A)

PFSN College DTi

Jonah Lea’ea, Utah (79.0, C+)
Skyler Gill-Howard, Texas Tech (87.2, B+)

PFSN College LBi

Johnathan Hall, Utah (74.3, C)
Ben Roberts, Texas Tech (74.7, C)

PFSN College CBi

Jackson Bennee, Utah (86.3, B)
Brice Pollock, Texas Tech (82.5, B-)

PFSN College SAFi

Tao Johnson, Utah (77.9, C+)
Brenden Jordan, Texas Tech (75.9, C)

Utah vs. Texas Tech Prediction
As a fan account of Utah on X put it, there will be a lot of NFL Scouts in attendance for this game. The matchups in this game are going to be wonderful. You have two top offensive tackle prospects in Caleb Lomu and Spencer Fano facing off against a projected first-round edge in David Bailey and his running mate, Romello Height.

A lot of NFL scouts will be in attendance for Texas Tech vs Utah.

— #16 PICK SIX U (@therealutahutes) September 18, 2025

Among the thousands of players in college football, Utah and Texas Tech boast four of the top 100 overall players, eight of the top 200, five players ranked within the top 10 of their respective positions, and two players ranked third. It’s completely understandable why college scouts would like to be in attendance for this game.

According to TruMedia, Utah ranks fifth in pressure rate this season, while Texas Tech ranks 19th. The key difference is that Utah also ranks 21st in blitz rate, while Tech ranks 104th — different methods of getting after the quarterback, but the same result. John Henry Daley leads the FBS in sacks with five of Utah’s nine, while Bailey and Height rank seventh and 11th in pressure rate this season.

Utah ranks 11th in offensive EPA (expected points added) under pressure versus 25th when not, while Texas Tech ranks 31st and ninth in those situations. It’s also a good thing that the Red Raiders don’t blitz much, as Utah is equally effective against the blitz as not (15th vs. 17th in EPA). Utah’s ability to handle pressure comes as a result of Devon Dampier’s ability to evade pressure.

Utah actually ranks 63rd in scrambling EPA under pressure. Still, seventh in sack EPA under pressure, showing that it isn’t Dampier taking off every time there is pressure, it’s his Mahomes-like ability to escape and find someone downfield. In fact, Utah, under pressure, has the fifth-longest time to throw in the FBS versus 48th overall. Combining this with the fact that Dampier has just as a 12.5% pressure to sack rate really shows the elite talent of Dampier.

So far, his 2025 season has proven that he can extend plays but still reap rewards greater than the risk/downside he is taking. Texas Tech likes to play at a breakneck pace, ranking 25th in seconds per play, while Utah is around average at 61st. Both Tech and Utah have proven to be highly effective in scripted plays as well, ranking 9th and 11th in EPA, respectively.

With that being said, I tend to favor the team that is more comfortable winning slowly and consistently, given their two powerful teams, both offensively and defensively. Utah ranks 20th in turnover EPA, whereas Texas Tech ranks 69th. Utah ranks first in rushing success and fifth in passing success rates, while Texas Tech ranks eighth in both.

Prediction: Utah 31, Texas Tech 28