Vikings Labeled with Upcoming “Dilemma”

Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Before you know it — and depending on how the Minnesota Vikings close out the 2024 campaign — the purple team will have a decision at quarterback.

Vikings Labeled with Upcoming “Dilemma”

The choice, most likely, will be to re-sign Sam Darnold and reset the “bridge quarterback” clock, not unlike the lead-up to the 2024 regular season. Or — Minnesota can hand rookie passer J.J. McCarthy the baton and let Darnold walk via free agency.

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And according to Pro Football Focus, the Vikings made the cut for upcoming quarterback dilemmas, a PFF list that includes 10 franchises. From the New York Jets and Aaron Rodgers’ 2025 status to the Las Vegas Raiders, who very vividly need a quarterback, Minnesota was tucked in the middle.

The advice? PFF claimed the Vikings should turn to McCarthy. “The Vikings are 5-2 and likely to make the playoffs (65% chance, per PFF ELO). The team’s offense has been impressive, and Sam Darnold deserves some credit. His 72.7 PFF passing grade is a career high, and his 12 big-time throws are tied for the sixth most in football,” PFF’s Bradley Locker explained.

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Darnold ranks ninth in the NFL among qualifying quarterbacks, per EPA+CPOE, an efficiency metric measuring expected wins added. He’s on pace for 34 touchdown passes — a commendable mark for a patchover passer or any signal-caller.

“At the same time, Darnold hasn’t been incredible, per se. He still sits 16th among qualified quarterbacks in PFF overall grade, not to mention 14th in adjusted EPA per play,” Locker continued. “Those numbers reflect more of a league-average quarterback, and given how much the Vikings invested in McCarthy, that’s probably not worth retaining.”

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On the whole, this would-be dilemma may not be too mysterious. Minnesota will probably let McCarthy have the keys to the enterprise, with a sweet thank-you note to Darnold as he explores free agency.

Locker concluded, “In light of the aforementioned weaker free-agent quarterback class, Darnold will likely fetch a deal worth at least $15 million per year, likely to be a team’s either QB1 or competition for a younger starter. In turn, Minnesota should simply turn to the cheaper McCarthy, if for nothing but to see what he’s capable of. After all, the Vikings took him 12th overall and have touted him as their quarterback of the future. That’s what the 2025 season is about determining.”

(Note: the Vikings actually took McCarthy 10th overall).

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The Vikings drafted McCarthy for a reason — to be the QB1 of the future — and re-upping with Darnold as a QB2 might be fine, but putting off McCarthy’s ascension would be silly.

Some folks consider it a dilemma. Yet don’t think too hard about it. The Vikings will belong to McCarthy before too long.

Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL. 

All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.