Week 1 Care/Don’t Care: Jameson Williams finally erupts

5 things I care aboutThe Lions have multiple pitchesThe Lions made it a little harder on themselves than it needed to be in their 26-20 overtime win against the Rams. Detroit has matchup advantages at just about every level over the young Rams defense. It felt like they were playing with their food at times on Sunday night, as stars like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta weren’t involved.

Then overtime happened and the Lions leaned into what the core of their identity is, was and always has been: they are bullies.

With a gassed Rams defense on the other side, the Lions’ offensive line moved men and pushed piles. Detroit handed the ball off to David Montgomery five times and he barreled through L.A. with some teach-tape style of runs on the way to the game-winning touchdown.

It was a pure, uncut Detroit Lions drive.

Prior to the extra quarter, we saw some new pitches from the Lions on offense, as well. Jahmyr Gibbs was coming off of an injury and some assumed he might be limited in his return. Instead, it looked like Gibbs was taking an authoritative step forward in the running back room. Gibbs had five targets in the first four quarters and 11 carries, including some work at the goal line.

Montgomery finished the night but Gibbs has continued to demonstrate he’s gaining ground as a technically sound tempo runner in the same vein as the veteran. Look for him to continue to ascend as the season wears on and he gets healthier.

The bigger development, however, was in Detroit’s passing game. As mentioned, usual staples LaPorta and St. Brown combined for 58 yards. Usually St. Brown clears that all on his own. He went under that total just three times all of last season. And yet, the Lions weren’t in any trouble because, instead of the usual suspects, it was Jameson Williams who led the way with nine targets for 121 yards and a score.

Williams did the vast majority of his damage on a 52-yard score where he obliterated former Bills corner Tre’Davious White:

That wasn’t the only way Williams made his presence known. He also caught three passes working across the formation as a layup target who produced extra yards after the catch. That’s the type of dirty-work, target-earning skills he showed in college, in addition to his world-class speed, that made him a first-round draft pick.

A note I discussed when doing (something I never do) the splits of Jameson Williams’ #ReceptionPerception charting last season was that in the final five games sampled, he posted an 84.8% success rate vs. zone coverage, which would have been a top-five mark among all players… pic.twitter.com/aEPIniJh33

— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) September 9, 2024

A smiling and fully dancing Williams said in the postgame interview that having the faith of his head coach and quarterback “meant a lot because I’ve been through a lot.” The conviction was demonstrated all offseason through words and actions of the coaching staff and front office. It was all reaffirmed in the most critical way on Sunday night.

Will we get this version of Williams over the course of a full 17-game season and into the playoffs? That’s no lock but what we witnessed Sunday night was how critical that development is for an offense that’s already spoiled in terms of playmakers. A full-scale Williams breakout would change the complexion of distribution in this offense. Even just a leap forward with the skills he showed in the Week 1 win brings a new and dangerous wrinkle to an already elite unit.

The new and old TexansThe Texans’ Week 1 offense looked like a plan coming together. The new additions to the unit immediately made the exact impact they hoped for, while the star holdovers delivered the kind of performances that made this team go in 2023.

Let’s start in the backfield because, despite all the time we spent analyzing the wide receiver room, Joe Mixon’s impact was felt throughout all four quarters.

Mixon didn’t do anything outrageous or rip off any field-flipping plays; he had a long run of just 13. However, he averaged 5.3 yards per rush. That split and the fact that he toted the rock a whopping 30 times in Week 1 perfectly encapsulates what he brought to this team.

The Texans’ run game was miserable last season. The offensive line dealt with injuries and they may have tried to run a few too many concepts, but far too often, the running backs were a net negative for this unit. In Week 1 of 2024, Mixon just got the job done in Houston’s 29-27 victory against the Colts. He was a steady presence as a rusher, getting what was blocked up front and gaining a handful of yards with power at the end of runs. Just having a professional back in the fold made a huge difference, especially as Houston tried to close out the game. If this usage holds for Mixon, he will end up outscoring “more exciting” running backs who went ahead of him in fantasy drafts.

The Texans’ more marquee addition on offense was Stefon Diggs. He also delivered in his debut with the team, snaring all six targets, including two for touchdowns. Diggs played the exact role I expected him to operate in Houston as soon as this trade went down. He doesn’t have the same juice downfield as he once did, but on short, quick routes on late downs and inside the 10-yard line, the veteran receiver will be huge for C.J. Stroud. We already saw it in action.

The air yards will likely be lower for Diggs than Nico Collins and Tank Dell. That doesn’t mean his role is less critical, especially now that we’ve seen proof of concept. I’d be thrilled if he was my WR3 on any fantasy team, regardless of format.

That brings us to what we already knew was great in the Houston offense: Stroud and Collins. Both ascending young superstars look like they picked right up where they left off from last season.

I thought Stroud was fantastic in this game. He made a few mistakes, but he more than made up for them with decisive strikes downfield and functional mobility. Stroud was accurate and in command of the offense. His connection with No. 1 wideout Collins was on full display. Collins led the team with eight targets and a whopping 50.5% share of the team air yards, per Next Gen Stats.

It’s hard to isolate Collins’ most impressive play but his late-game grab along the sideline was my favorite:

That reception demonstrated what makes Collins a top-10 receiver in my books just as much as his 55-yard go-route catch early in the game. In addition to being an outrageous size/speed player, Collins is technically sound as a route runner, consistently under control at breakpoints and he possesses excellent hands. He is the clear alpha of this ultra-talented wide receiver room. I’d feel no regrets about spending a first-three-round pick on him in fantasy.

The Texans’ offense will face tougher tests than the Colts’ defense down the line, but getting this division win over a team many are excited about is still a strong start. The fact that both the old and new members of this offense filed right into the roles they needed to hold makes it even better.

Houston will be one of the right answers this season.

The Falcons stumbleEvery fiber in my being wants to advise patience; to remind you this is just one game for a team that’s breaking in a new head coach, play-caller and starting quarterback going against one of the top defenses in the league. That could all be the right course of action. I’m hoping it is.

Yet, I come away from the Falcons’ Week 1 showing pretty disturbed — there is no other way to put it.

Kirk Cousins did not play well. The stats were poor, the actual experience of watching him was worse. He put the ball in harm’s way and made poor decisions. More importantly, I didn’t love how downright limited the offense looked, and that my first reaction was the coaching staff was trying to adjust for a possible loss in mobility for Cousins post-Achilles tear.

The Falcons used pistol the majority of their offensive plays (55%), never used play-action and took a single snap under center, per Next Gen Stats. They ran the ball on 81% of their plays out of pistol. They had zero called runs out of shotgun.

If you have a siloed offense in today’s NFL, you are cooked. At the very least, you have a terribly capped ceiling.

Cousins has never taken more than 10 snaps out of the pistol in any game during his NFL career. Now it’s the basis of an offense catered for him? Something smells off. That distribution is in line with what the Rams offense, where this new coaching staff comes from, did late last year but it’s not the type of offense Cousins has operated during his long NFL career.

Part of what we were sold is that, while Cousins hasn’t played for offensive coordinator Zac Robinson and this coaching staff specifically, he has operated this system for the vast majority of his career playing with Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay and Kevin O’Connell. We are already close to tossing that out of the window after just one game.

This may have all been why Cousins just never looked comfortable on Sunday, and the fact that Drake London only drew three targets hammers that point home. Cousins was quick to drop his eyes and rarely just read out a play to arrive at his No. 1 target.

Bottom line: it would just be ideal if we could have gone one full game without an onslaught of Michael Penix-related social media posts.

The Falcons go on the road to play Philadelphia next week, which at this point, looks like a mixed bag of a defensive matchup. One thing is for sure: after the way the Eagles offense moved the ball despite their quarterback making some curious decisions, Atlanta will need to score points. Let’s hope we’re coming away from Week 2 feeling better about the Falcons ability to do just that and more time on task for everyone involved in this unit smoothes things out.

As it stands now, my concern level is higher than I want it.

J.K DobbinsOne of the fantasy football stories of the day has to be the eruption performance of J.K. Dobbins.

The new Chargers back ripped off 135 yards on just 10 carries and scored a touchdown. Dobbins was caught from behind on his 61-yard run but absolutely looked explosive and took advantage of quality blocking. We know he’s a talented player and generally received strong reviews this offseason.

Still, this was a Week 1 surprise story.

Dobbins led the running backs room in snaps (33) and routes run (17) per PFF. He looks like the lead back on the Chargers. The coaching staff have emphasized they’ll go with a hot-hand approach in the backfield. One guy’s gloves are definitely sizzling after Week 1.

This may be a moving target all season long but for the time being, Dobbins looks like a huge winner at the running back position. Health will always be a question mark with Dobbins but even if he’s not here for a long time, he’s here for a good time in this rushing ecosystem.

On that note, the offensive line received a huge boost in right tackle Joe Alt. The rookie held Maxx Crosby to zero quarterback pressures in 11 matchups on Sunday. That’s the first time Crosby has been blanked by a single offensive lineman since 2022. You can’t ask for a more impressive debut.

I remain more bullish than consensus on the Chargers offense for this season. The play of the tackles and the run game are big reasons why that is and we saw evidence of both in Week 1.

Brian Thomas Jr.It’s one week but right now, I feel good about Brian Thomas Jr. being a difference-maker for the Jaguars offense. As a vertical, outside receiver with strong ball skills, Thomas was the exact type of receiver the 2023 Jaguars needed.

In his rookie debut, he delivered on that hope when called upon. For example, look no further than his touchdown reception. How many times did we see a play like this come up just short because of a bobble, missed second-foot in-bounds or some other mistake in 2023?

As you can see from that play, the Dolphins thought so highly of Thomas that they had Jalen Ramsey track him around the field. That’s some seriously high praise by a professional coaching staff on the rookie receiver.

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The Jaguars offense wasn’t perfect as a whole. However, there were some encouraging wrinkles. The run game was much more explosive than it was in 2023 and the passing game was better and aligned more often under center. If they can get those to be more staples of the attack, the verticality of this attack can be further expressed. It’s quite clear that Thomas will be the beneficiary of that, if and when it comes to pass. Thomas could be one of the right answers in the mid-rounds at wide receiver.

5 things I don’t care aboutThe Rams’ red flagsI’ll admit that at some point during the late portion of the first half, I was ready to write the 2024 Rams off. I’ve been saying for a few weeks now on Football 301 that this is quietly one of the most fragile offensive ecosystems in the NFC and cracks were already springing on the offensive line.

Those holes burst wide open as the line lost more tackle depth and center Steve Aviala while star receiver Puka Nacua left the game with a leg injury. The fragility was threatening to end what should’ve been a promising Rams campaign before it even got going.

Then, Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp happened.

It should simply not have been possible for Stafford to function behind that offensive line. Yet, he orchestrated multiple scoring drives in the second half and gave the Rams the lead in the fourth quarter. The defense ultimately ran out of gas and the team let the win slip away but Stafford and his top target in Kupp did all they could to work themselves out from behind enemy lines.

Fantasy managers will never see how impressive Stafford’s outing was if they just look at the box score. Whatever story you think 6.5 yards per attempt, a single touchdown and an 85.2 passer rating tells, it’s not nearly one that does his performance justice. He avoided sacks, displayed his mastery of arm angles and delivered pinpoint passes to open, and covered, receivers from a variety of platforms. It was a blackout-like performance from Stafford in the second half.

Kupp was the main beneficiary of the action with Nacua sidelined. He inhaled a whopping 21 targets and cleared 110 yards with a score. It was straight out of the 2022 Rams playbook but the offense just had lightyears more life than anything we witnessed that season. The fact that we have seen Kupp have WR1 overall in his range of outcomes in that nightmare campaign makes me want to ignore the warning signs the Rams season is already offering at this year’s onset.

Still, those red flags are present, and the fragility remains no matter how the rose-colored glasses of Stafford, Kupp and a possibly still well-designed run game paint the picture. What the worst-case scenario of 2022 demonstrated and Week 1 of this season reminded us is that Kupp can still have league-changing upside even in the nightmare, as long as he’s healthy and Stafford is at the height of his powers.

For the time being, it was made abundantly clear we’re in that timeline.

Over-analysis of Anthony RichardsonIf the preseason hand-wringing was any indication, there will undoubtedly be a ton of over-analysis regarding Anthony Richardson’s Week 1 performance. But here’s the reality: there was some good and some bad.

Richardson averaged a whopping 11.2 yards per pass attempt but completed just nine of 19 throws. He left plays on the field and had his share of misses, but he also put a true one-of-one throw on film on his first of a handful of downfield strikes:

Through all the volatility, Richardson finished with 27.08 fantasy points. He’s very likely to finish as a top-five quarterback on the week — exactly what fantasy managers drafted him to be for their fake squads. So, for those folks, there’s little reason to fret some of the down moments.

For anyone just analyzing Richardson objectively, the Week 1 result should have been precisely what you’d expect. You’re going to get some mind-bending plays, both on the positive and negative side. There were moments when he clearly broke down a well-coached Texans defense and created issues with his arm talent. He also wasn’t consistently accurate and left too many plays on the field. That’s going to be part of the deal.

Nothing we saw today was out of the ordinary for who we know Richardson to be at this stage of his career. We’ll need to track how he develops, if at all, throughout this season. That complete picture will be the determining factor in projecting the rest of his career, not some one-game, one-throw sample.

This is a developing picture; just enjoy the ride.

Marvin Harrison Jr. panicYou can’t really sugarcoat what a letdown Marvin Harrison Jr.’s debut was in Week 1. Harrison caught just one pass for four yards and only drew three targets on the day. It was nice to see them go right back to him for his lone reception after he dropped a pass but that’s about the only good thing to say. It doesn’t offer much.

The lasting image for Harrison was this play where he was wide-open late in the game and Kyler Murray just never saw him. These things happen but it’s still brutal.

However, that’s part of why I’m not panicking. Harrison was on the field a ton and played in the role we projected. He was the lead receiver in terms of routes per dropback. The day could have been bigger and Harrison did get behind the defense. If that play is made, no one is having this conversation.

The other silver lining here is that the Cardinals offense played well in a tough spot on the road against a far more talented team. Arizona was moving the ball with ease in the first half and held a 17-3 lead with 30 seconds left in the second quarter.

And let’s remember the opponent here. The Bills have annually a top defense and Sean McDermott puts out strong secondaries almost regardless of the personnel. Obviously, we need to watch the all-22 back to know for sure, but that was likely a huge reason Harrison was blanked and there was a bit too much Greg Dortch involvement.

Murray completed 19 of 23 passes on passes under 10 air yards, per Next Gen Stats, but struggled downfield. The fact that Murray generally played a strong game and helped move the ball on the ground as well as he ever has should be a good note for Harrison’s future outcome.

There are some much less inspiring defenses on the schedule the next few weeks, so let’s see if Harrison and the vertical passing game are more involved. This is a coaching staff that’s moved into my circle of trust and should be expected to get this one right in time.

As long as Harrison’s film is clean, I won’t be panicking on the rookie wideout.

Steelers’ pass-catchers not named George PickensJustin Fields targeted George Pickens on seven of his 23 passes, while no other Steelers offensive player drew more than four. Pickens owned a 30% target share and a whopping 75.2% share of the team’s air yards in Week 1.

He was the central gravitational force for this passing game, which of course took a pretty severe backseat to the other phase on offense. The Steelers had 41 runs to 23 passes. Week 1 starting quarterback Justin Fields chipped in with 14 runs of his own, a mix of scrambles and designed runs. Despite Russell Wilson quite literally lurking around in his full pads after being ruled out with a calf injury, I’d imagine Fields holds this job until he gives the team a reason to take it away. That’s always possible with Fields, who looked as scattershot as ever in the pocket, but while he’s in there he allows Pittsburgh to field a multi-dimensional run game.

For that reason, it’s even more critical that Pickens dominates the passing opportunities and gets targets in the areas where he’s best.

Per @NextGenStats, all of George Pickens’ seven targets came on passes outside the numbers and he had 59% of his targets come outside the numbers last season.

As I’ve always said with Pickens, these are the routes where he’s best deployed. He shines here as a route runner vs.… pic.twitter.com/0t6CBxpIGm

— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) September 8, 2024

People always clamor for Pickens to see more targets over the middle but this is where he’s really special as a receiver. This is a good sign that Arthur Smith understands his No. 1 wideout and how he fits best with his starting quarterback.

The picture with Pickens will always be volatile, for a variety of reasons this season. Still, Week 1 was filled with good signals for him in this under-center, play-action-heavy offense.

The September BengalsIt’s always something with the Bengals in the first month of the season.

In years past it’s been about Joe Burrow’s health. This time, the blame will be placed at the feet of his top two wideouts. Tee Higgins missed the game with a hamstring injury, while Ja’Marr Chase just returned to practice days ago following a contract holdout. Maybe it’s a one-week blip but I’m not sure if there are many excuses for this loss.

According to Next Gen Stats, Chase was on the field for 85% of the Bengals offensive plays. He was matched up against Patriots corner Christian Gonzalez, who was excellent as a rookie prior to injury, for 70.4% of his routes. Despite that matchup, Chase thought he should have gotten the ball more, even if he was dealing with food poisoning.

Perhaps Jerod Mayo and the defensive coaching staff really mixed up the coverage picture or the non-Chase receivers just aren’t NFL starter-level whatsoever, because Bengals’ backers can’t just blame this on the offensive line like usual. Per Next Gen Stats, Burrow was pressured on just six of 35 dropbacks, his third-lowest pressure rate faced in a game in his career (17.1%).

Maybe Burrow was just rusty after not playing the back half of last season. We can do the “Maybe this, Maybe that” game for the rest of the day. The reality is that a Patriots team with 2024 expectations much lower than that of the Bengals controlled the game from the very first snap and never let up. At some point, these slow starts are just the expectation for this Bengals team regardless of the excuse. And at the same time, that doesn’t make them any more acceptable.

This was a troubling start to Cincinnati’s season.