What are the odds? The favorites and longshots to win NASCAR at Las Vegas

NASCAR has graced the tarmac of Las Vegas Motor Speedway since 1998 with Mark Martin winning the inaugural event. In recent years, Chevrolet’s been a dominant force, collecting six of the last eight victories, with Hendrick Motorsports winning three straight — so the drivers with the lowest odds shouldn’t really come as a surprise.

Leading the way is Kyle Larson at +300. Even before looking at betting odds, the driver of the No. 5 is the clear favorite. He’s won the last two Cup races at Las Vegas and currently sits atop the playoff standings after the reset.  In 12 starts, he holds the best average finish among active drivers at 9.3, along with three checkered flags.

Race winner Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports, HendrickCars.com Chevrolet Camaro

Photo by: John Harrelson / NKP / Motorsport Images

Right behind Larson is another Hendrick driver — this year’s Daytona 500 victor William Byron at +750. Then there’s Christopher Bell, who has never won a Cup race at Vegas, but he was a single car length away from changing that fact in last fall’s dramatic finish. With how strong he has consistently been throughout the playoffs, it makes plenty of sense for him to be near the top of the betting sheet at +800.

Denny Hamlin at +850 and Tyler Reddick at +900 are also solid choices for the win on Sunday. 2022 Vegas winner Joey Logano is at +1000 who is facing an unlikely second chance in the playoffs following Alex Bowman’s shock DQ. A three-time winner at the 1.5-mile oval, Logano managed to parlay his 2022 victory into the championship, noting then that winning the opening race of the Round of 8 helped the team to better focus all efforts towards the title-decider in the weeks that followed. He showed just how important winning this race cold be for the eight remaining title hopefuls in their quest to become the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series champion.

Joey Logano, Team Penske, Pennzoil Ford Mustang wins.

Photo by: Rusty Jarrett / NKP / Motorsport Images

The playoff drivers with the worst odds entering Vegas are defending series champion Ryan Blaney at +1100 and Chase Elliott at +1200. Neither driver has ever won at LVMS, and both are in need of points as they enter this round below the cut-line. Chasing stage points will make it harder for them to go all-out for the win, with Logano facing a similar predicament. 

But what about the spoilers? Non-playoff drivers have won three of the first six races in the postseason, and that trend could definitely continue this weekend. Las Vegas native Kyle Busch leads this group at +1400. He has won at his home track, but that was 15 years ago. Richard Childress Racing has also struggled this year, but they have seen a recent seen an uptick in performance. Just a couple weeks ago at Kansas — another intermediate track — Busch was in contention for the win win before spinning from the lead with just over 30 laps to go.

The driver who ended up winning that Kansas race instead is also a good bet for a possible spoiler on Sunday. At +1600, Ross Chastain has four top-fives in the last five Cup races at Vegas, and was on the front row for the final restart earlier this year. He ended up fourth, but with older left-side tires than all of those around him, one has to wonder how strong he could have been on equal ground.

Kyle Busch, No. 8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet Camaro; Ross Chastain, No. 1 Trackhouse Racing, Kubota Chevrolet Camaro

Photo by: Nigel Kinrade / NKP / Motorsport Images

Now, what about the drivers who made the playoffs, but have since been eliminated? There’s some very fast drivers among that group, including Martin Truex Jr. The soon-to-be (partially) retired Joe Gibbs Racing driver is at +1400, still remaining winless this year. He is always a threat at Las Vegas where he has two Cup wins there. Perhaps more impressively, he enters Vegas with eight straight top-ten finishes.

Looking at long shots, there are a couple solid options for the real gamblers out there. After scoring more points than any driver in the opening round, Bowman’s playoffs came to an abrupt end when he was disqualified after failing inspection last weekend. That doesn’t change the fact that the No. 48 has been very fast, and without having to worry about collecting points, he could be a real threat despite his +2800 odds. He is also a former race winner at Las Vegas, winning the 2022 spring race.

At +3000 odds, there is the likely to be overlooked Brad Keselowski. He, along with Larson and Logano, are the only active drivers with three wins at the track. Yes, all of Keselowski’s wins came between 2014 and 2018, but he was a contender in last fall’s race too, finishing fourth after 38 laps in the No. 6 RFK Racing Ford.

Here’s a look at how the entire field stacks up for the NASCAR Cup race at Las Vegas, per the oddsmakers: