Who will win the Premier League?

Arsenal’s thumping 5-0 win over Chelsea on Tuesday saw them open a three-point gap at the top of the Premier League table – but Manchester City remain strong favourites to win the title.

Kai Havertz and Ben White both scored twice as the Gunners recorded a statement victory over their London rivals.

The result means Arsenal are three points above second-placed Liverpool and four points ahead of City in third.

However, Jurgen Klopp’s side have a game in hand over Arsenal, while Pep Guardiola’s team have played two games fewer than the league leaders.

Liverpool visit Merseyside neighbours Everton on Wednesday and Manchester City travel to Brighton on Thursday.

Opta, with its 10,000 ‘supercomputer’ simulations,external-link believes City’s dressing room is the place to be.

Predicted Premier League final table – OptaTeam% chance of winning titleCurrent position & points1. Man City55.33rd – 73 points2. Arsenal29.91st – 77 points3. Liverpool14.82nd – 74 pointsCurrent Premier League tablePremier LeagueTeamPlayedPointsGDGSForm (past 5 games)1. Arsenal34775682WWLWW2. Liverpool33744375WWDLW3. Man City32734476DDWWWIf teams are level after 38 games, the title will be decided on goal difference and, if still level, goals scoredWhat are the remaining fixtures?Percentages in the table below show the chances of Liverpool, Manchester City or Arsenal winning each individual game, as predicted by Nielsen’s Gracenote before last weekend’s games.

DateLiverpoolManchester CityArsenal24 AprilEverton (a) – 62%25 AprilBrighton (a) – 67%27 AprilWest Ham (a) – 54%28 AprilNottingham Forest (a) – 79%Tottenham (a) – 41%4 MayWolves (h) – 85%Bournemouth (h) – 80%5 MayTottenham (h) – 61%11 MayAston Villa (a) – 43%Fulham (a) – 73%Man Utd (a) – 39%14 MayTottenham (a) – 58%19 MayWolves (h) – 74%West Ham (h) – 81%Everton (h) – 79%When were the other closest three-way title races?There have been a handful of three-way Premier League title races where the teams have been similarly close towards the end of a 38-game season.

2013-14: By as late as 6 May 2014, only two points separated Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea. City won their game in hand to leapfrog a stumbling Liverpool and went on to snatch the title. Liverpool’s disappointment was characterised by Steven Gerrard’s famous slip in their 2-0 defeat against Chelsea and then Crystal Palace’s comeback from three goals down to draw 3-3.

2001-02: On 23 April 2002, Arsenal led Liverpool by a point with Manchester United a further point back. But Arsenal had a game in hand and were partway through a run of 11 consecutive wins. They sealed the title by beating United at Old Trafford.

1995-96: In mid-March, with eight games left, Manchester United were level on 61 points with Newcastle, and Liverpool were on 59 points in third. Despite having played two games more at the time, Sir Alex Ferguson’s side saw off the challenge of Kevin Keegan’s Magpies.

What happened at this stage last year?Three draws in a row in April 2023 cost Arsenal momentum as Manchester City won last season’s title, with the Gunners’ probability of being champions nosedivingWhat if the teams finish level on points?Should there be a tie, the league is decided on goal difference, then goals scored, then most points in the head-to-head matches, then most away goals in the head-to-head record.

Whatever happens, don’t be too surprised if there are more twists and turns between now and the final day of the season on 19 May.

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