Why Bills vs. Chiefs is about which team will be less self-destructive

The most anticipated matchup of the NFL Divisional Round weekend is the latest installment of the Kansas City Chiefs-Buffalo Bills rivalry. For the first time since 2020, the Bills will be the home team and Patrick Mahomes will be faced with a road playoff atmosphere for the first time in his career.

When we last saw these teams square off in the postseason two years ago, it was one of the greatest games in NFL history, won by Kansas City in a 42-36 overtime classic. Beyond the 1,000 yards of offense and quarterbacking masterclasses by Mahomes and Josh Allen, the quality of play was remarkably clean — there were no turnovers and only four accepted penalties.

This Sunday’s showdown presents a different dynamic from previous playoff meetings. The 2023 editions of Kansas City and Buffalo have been anything but well-oiled machines. Their identical, division-winning 11-6 records come with a host of season-long struggles that have largely been self-inflicted.

Turnovers
The Chiefs and Bills are the only remaining playoff teams ranked top-10 in turnovers committed and in rate of offensive drives ending in a turnover. The big difference? While both teams have turned it over 28 times, the Chiefs had a turnover margin of -11 compared to Buffalo’s +2. Kansas City has only managed a positive turnover differential twice all season. Patrick Mahomes has as many turnovers by himself (17) as the otherwise outstanding Chiefs defense has forced.

Kansas City is no stranger to being its own worst enemy; last season the Chiefs were just the 8th team to win a Super Bowl despite a negative turnover margin (-3) in the regular season. You have to go back to the 1983 Raiders for the last time an eventual Super Bowl champion had a turnover margin worse than -10. They’re the only Divisional Round team left with negative net Expected Points Added (EPA) from turnovers.

You might notice the Bills are one of the best teams in the NFL in net EPA from turnovers, even though Josh Allen leads the league in turnovers (22) and is 2nd in interceptions thrown (18). As mentioned earlier, the Bills defense has been outstanding at forcing turnovers, but the stats on offense illustrate that not all turnovers are weighted equally. While Allen has been prone to ill-advised decisions and sloppy mistakes, his interceptions have not been as costly compared to his peers.

One of my favorite visuals of the year. Interception Impact! An INT on 3rd and 20 isn’t the same as one on 1st and Goal. It is okay to be more aggressive in bad situations! First Graph EPA Lost, Second Graph Winning % Lost. pic.twitter.com/sQXbCF2fhQ

— McCade Pearson (@McCadeP8) January 5, 2024

This isn’t to say that Buffalo hasn’t lost games or nearly lost them due to sloppiness. Of their five games in which they were -2 or worse in turnover margin, the Bills posted a 2-3 record, all against non-playoff opposition. Even during their current six-game winning streak, they eked out a 24-22 win against the Easton Stick-led Los Angeles Chargers after committing three turnovers, all resulting in Charger points.

Drops
You might have heard a thing or two about the Chiefs pass-catchers treating the football like it’s freshly erupted magma.

In Week 11 vs. the Eagles, Marquez Valdes-Scantling had an awful drop that would have put the Chiefs ahead with under 2 minutes to go

Final score: PHI 21 – 17 KC

3/5pic.twitter.com/l2fPPlqJXy

— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) December 14, 2023

The Chiefs lead the NFL in drops and drop rate, and while Kadarius Toney had two high-profile drops turn into interceptions, Travis Kelce (7) and rookie Rashee Rice (8) had the most drops among Chiefs players (according to Pro Football Reference).

Bills players are not immune to the dropsies, either. They quietly rank 7th in total drops (30) and tied for 9th in drop rate (5.2%). Against the Denver Broncos, the Bills were dinged for four drops, one of which turned into an interception.

James Cook is not only among the league-leaders in fumbles among running backs, he’s also dropped two potential touchdowns.

Penalties
Buffalo had the 7th-most accepted penalties in the regular season. In their last loss versus the Philadelphia Eagles, the Bills were flagged 11 times for 80 yards, including consecutive false starts that took them from field goal range to punting.

It’s not always about the quantity, though. In addition to the drops versus Denver, a pass interference penalty put the Broncos in game-winning field goal range, and the infamous 12 men on the field negated a missed kick by Wil Lutz, who made no mistake on the retry.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs are roughly league-average with 96 accepted penalties. Just imagine how much better those numbers would look if not for starting right tackle Jawaan Taylor, who’s the NFL’s most penalized player by a mile, and the most penalized in eight years. Last week against the Miami Dolphins, Taylor was dinged for an illegal block in the back that negated a Rashee Rice touchdown.

Of course, the Bills vs. Chiefs regular season clash in Week 14 could’ve had a different outcome if not for Kadarius Toney’s offside heard ‘round the world.

Toney will definitely not play a role in Sunday’s game, as he’s been ruled out with hip and ankle injuries.

It’s cliché to say that whichever team makes fewer mistakes will win, but it couldn’t be truer for this battle of mistake-prone Super Bowl contenders.