Will HR Derby win derail Teoscar Hernandez in 2nd half?

On Monday night, Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Teoscar Hernández became the most recent MLB Home Run Derby champion, besting Kansas City superstar Bobby Witt Jr in a narrow 14-13 final round. In doing so, Hernández joined a prestigious line of former champions and, more notably, became the first Dodger to take the crown. 

Hernández’s success in Arlington, though, presents some interesting perspective on his second half of the season. There used to be a perception that a Derby champ would struggle in the second half. Whether the physical toll or the mechanics of a different swing against slower pitches, that narrative built up over several years based on the occasional second half struggle of various winners. 

While that narrative has largely been dispelled, it at least provides us with an opportunity to look at some recent winners and what they would turn in as far as second half production. 

Going back to 2018, the five most recent winners are as follows: Bryce Harper, Pete Alonso (twice), Juan Soto, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Obviously there was no Home Run Derby in 2020. We’ll stick mostly to FanGraphs’ wRC+ as a cumulative measurement between the two halves in the interest of brevity, but also isolated slugging (ISO) as a measure of continued power after participating in the Derby.

Harper’s 2018 second half of season was actually better than his first. He posted a 159 wRC+ against a 118 first half mark. His power was down, but only slightly, as he went on to ISO at a .238 clip. Interestingly, Harper was able to shoot up his average (.214 to .300) and on-base (.365 to .434) numbers with nearly identical strikeout and walk rates to the first half. 

Each of Pete Alonso’s two years winning the Derby crown present an interesting inverse of one another. In 2019, he struggled between the two halves with a 124 wRC+ as a follow up to his 161 figure in the first. His power fell from a .354 ISO to .287. Still a very good figure, but a dip nonetheless. In 2021, it was flipped. Alonso’s first half wRC+ sat at only 116 in the first half, but leapt to 145 in half no. 2. Along with it, his power output rose. He followed a .227 first half ISO with a .285 mark in the second half. 

Of the five recent champions, Juan Soto offers perhaps the most notable struggle before and after the Derby. His wRC+ fell from 154 in the first half to 133 in the second, with his ISO also falling from .247 to .156. He was still above average by wRC+ and still posted an OBP near .400 thanks to his penchant for free passes, but the power was well below his .243 career ISO. 

In contrast to seemingly everyone else in recent history, Vladimir Guerrero Jr was quite steady between the two sides of the 2023 season. His first half wRC+ was 118 and his second half mark was 117. His ISO rose from .169 to .193. Not super significant, but an improvement regardless. Nothing across the board represented a massive move either way on the stat sheet.

So what does this all tell us about the prospective fortunes of Teoscar Hernández in the second half of the 2024 season? Absolutely nothing. 

While the narrative of the Home Run Derby ruining a swing is well in the rearview mirror, the typical variance of a Major League season is to be expected with Hernández. Ultimately, though, Hernández is not like any of those guys. He’s a solid, if unspectacular hitter. Which means that if we were to project his second half, it would likely include solid, if unspectacular things. 

The interesting thing to watch, however, is what element of his game does stand out in the second half. Recent Derby champs have leaned on their skill set. Harper hit. Soto walked. Alonso still hit for power. While not elite at any particular element, Hernández presents a certain level of stability throughout each facet of his game as a hitter. Will the average stand out more than the power? The power more than the average? A continually improved walk rate continuing to improve? We don’t know. 

But winning the Derby puts you under just a bit more of a microscope in the eyes of the mainstream. His performance in the second half will be a fascinating component of an already very interesting stretch of baseball.