Will the Eagles’ next 4 games determine Nick Sirianni’s fate?

The seal has been broken. The Jets, probably to the relief of Robert Saleh, have relieved Robert Saleh of his duties as head coach. A coach hasn’t been fired at 2-3 since Lou Saban in the AFL, so yeah, this is really early to fire a coach whose team hasn’t yet fallen apart. But firing season is here and Saleh won’t be the only victim.

Nick Sirianni entered this season at the very least on the one bar setting of seat heating. The first four games of the season did nothing to cool it. He probably won’t get fired in October, that’s not how Jeffrey Lurie does things, it is unlikely that Sirianni is fired during the season at all. But the next four games could seal his inevitable fate. These are all winnable games.

Browns

The Browns offense is a black hole. Cleveland’s only win this season was against the Jaguars, by 5 points. The Browns offense is averaging 3.8 yards per play, 28 teams have a better yards per carry. Their season high in scoring is 18 points. Deshaun Watson hasn’t thrown for 200 yards yet this season, he has been sacked 6+ times in three of his five games. Benching Watson, who for contract purposes the Browns are stuck with through next season, would create all of kinds of problems. For one, his backup is Jameis Winston.

If the Browns offense looks like a normally functioning offense against the Eagles, the defense is in major trouble.

Giants

The Giants once again stink. It was embarrassing that the Eagles lost to them last season, a losing streak to one of the worst teams in the league is simply unacceptable. In his final season Doug Pederson got swept by the Commanders, and lost his final three division games.

Bengals

Cincy are good but unlucky. They’ve lost two games where they have scored 33+ points. They are 0-3 at home, though by 6, 5 and 3 points, and their one other loss was by 1 point. They’re 4-1 or 5-0 with just a handful of breaks going the other way. Or just a better defense. 31st in points against, 22nd in DVOA, 31st on 3rd down, 30th on 4th down, 30th in points per drive against… the Bengals do nothing well on defense.

A shootout is in the cards for this game, and with the firepower the Eagles have, a high scoring win should be possible.

Jaguars

I hesitate to say anything negative about Super Bowl champion Doug Pederson but he’s going to get fired, possibly before the season is over, and it won’t be undeserved. Nothing is working for him, and he’s repeating his post Super Bowl arc of two 9-7 teams and then it all falls apart.

The Jaguars fired DC Mike Caldwell in the offseason and replaced him with former Falcons DC Ryan Nielsen and went from 17th to 30th in scoring, and are 32nd in defensive DVOA. The Jaguars defense is 30th on 3rd down conversions, 20th on 4th down, and 29th in points per drive against. In year three of the Pederson/Press Taylor offense, the Jaguars have gone backwards, down from 13th in scoring to 21st. Only the Panthers have a worse point differential.

That’s three games against bad teams, and a fourth against a good but flawed team.

Sirianni’s “new” role as “CEO head coach” (aren’t all head coaches the CEO?) isn’t working. The culture he says he is building sucks. Like Robert Saleh, Nick Sirianni won’t be getting the endorsement of his QB. The game planning isn’t anything to brag about, the Eagles have yet to score on their opening drive, the only team to do so. The team is still totally unprepared to not have Lane Johnson playing (though that is also a Howie Roseman problem), and can’t get anything going without AJ Brown. The aggressive and smart fourth down approach that Sirianni started his career with is gone. What does Nick Sirianni actually do?

And that’s why the next four games are crucial. Go 2-2 and the rest of the season is likely a formality. The next four after that are the hardest stretch of the season: at the Cowboys, vs the Commanders, at the Rams, at the Ravens. If the Eagles enter that at 4-4 (or worse), it’s hard to see them surging in the second half, and a double digit loss season is in play. At that point, Jeffrey Lurie might have to act.