Winners and Losers from the Blockbuster Dylan Cease Trade to Padres

Zachary D. RymerMarch 14, 2024Winners and Losers from the Blockbuster Dylan Cease Trade to Padres0 of 8

Michael Reaves/Getty Images

Just when it seemed like he might be heading to New York, San Francisco or Texas, Dylan Cease is instead going to San Diego to join the Padres.

It’s a shocker of a trade, so let’s break down its winners and losers.

The first thing to know is that Wednesday’s blockbuster between the Padres and Chicago White Sox—which was first reported by ESPN’s Jeff Passan—is a five-player deal consisting of Cease and four prospects:

Padres get: RHP Dylan CeaseWhite Sox get: RHP Drew Thorpe, OF Samuel Zavala, RHP Jairo Iriarte, RHP Steven WilsonCease is joining the Padres off a disappointing 2023 season after he had finished second in the American League Cy Young Award voting in 2022, but he is on an upswing. His first three spring starts saw him strike out 14 of the 31 batters he faced while allowing only two runs.

As such, we might as well start with the obvious winner in this deal.

Winner: San Diego Padres1 of 8

Michael KingMatt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images

It’s a reach to say the Juan Soto trade is no longer the defining move of the Padres’ 2023-24 offseason, but at least it’s not alone in that discussion anymore.

The Padres are certainly a better team now than they were before trading for Cease, and that has a lot to do with a starting rotation that’s looking mighty good on paper:

Yu DarvishJoe MusgroveDylan CeaseMichael KingMatt WaldronYu Darvish and Joe Musgrove are both ace-caliber starters when healthy, and Cease at least still featured ace-caliber stuff even as his ERA shot from 2.20 to 4.58 from 2022 to 2023.

Michael King, meanwhile, has gotten a head start on living up to having been San Diego’s centerpiece in the Soto deal. He’s given up only two hits in five innings this spring. Slowly but surely, the hype for his breakout is starting to build.

None of this is to imply that the Padres are capable of besting the Los Angeles Dodgers or the Arizona Diamondbacks in the National League West. But since FanGraphs’ odds had them firmly in the hunt for a wild-card spot even before the Cease trade, they should now be considered even more strongly in that race.

Loser: Matt Waldron or Jhony Brito2 of 8

Matt WaldronChris Coduto/Getty Images

Alas, here’s the bad news for incumbent Padres hurlers who had been angling for a job in the starting rotation: Where there were once two openings, now there’s only one.

This concerns Matt Waldron and Jhony Brito, both of whom had been making strong cases for San Diego’s rotation this spring. The former boasts a 1.35 ERA in 13.1 innings and the latter is keeping up nicely with a 2.08 ERA in 13 innings.

Even earlier on Wednesday, Waldron seemed to have a rotation spot in hand:

Jon Morosi @jonmorosiRHP Matt Waldron, 27, has the inside track on a @Padres rotation spot.

Waldron, the player to be named later in the 2020 Mike Clevinger/Greg Allen trade, has been one of the top starters in @MLB this spring, with a 0.975 WHIP over 13-1/3 IP.@MLBNetwork @HuskerBaseball

Whether this is still the case might not be a sure thing. Though Waldron has a slight advantage in run prevention over Brito this spring, the latter has faced tougher competition and racked up 16 strikeouts to the former’s 11.

Either way, it’s a shame that one of these guys is going to end up in the bullpen or in the minors to start the year.

Winner: Dylan Cease3 of 8

Dylan CeaseMatt Dirksen/MLB Photos via Getty Images

As for the man of the hour, let’s not overlook that Wednesday’s trade is just as happy an occasion for Cease as it is for the Padres.

With the White Sox coming off a 101-loss season and potentially headed for another 100-loss campaign this year, the 28-year-old wouldn’t have had much to pitch for if he’d stayed with them. Competition-wise, his only hope of pitching for a contender was to get traded to one.

You have to hand it to Cease for playing it as cool as he did. He was hardly deaf to all the trade rumors that had his name in them, but he arrived to camp with the right mindset: “At the end of the day, I just want to perform.”

Still, it can’t be easy to perform with something as nerve-wracking as a potential trade hanging over one’s head. Albeit at the last minute, the Padres have essentially spared him from that kind of torment.

Now all Cease has to do is pitch as well as he can for a team that, at least relative to the White Sox, is going places. Plus, I hear San Diego is lovely this time of year all of the time.

Loser: New York Yankees4 of 8

Gerrit ColeNew York Yankees/Getty Images

So, now what do the Yankees do?

This question shot into the air like a rocket as soon as Gerrit Cole, the AL’s reigning Cy Young Award winner, underwent an MRI on his right elbow on Monday. And it’s still looming large now that it’s been determined that he’ll miss at least one month.

If the Yankees had it their way, they’d be sizing Cease up for pinstripes right now. They reportedly pivoted to him as soon as Cole was headed for testing, and Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported that they were in on him until the end:

Jon Morosi @jonmorosiCan confirm the Yankees made a final trade proposal for Dylan Cease in the last 24 to 48 hours.

Clearly, the Yankees are still working to add an impact starting pitcher.@MLBNetwork

The Yankees still have the option of signing Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery off the free-agent market, but the Cease trade likely hasn’t helped their leverage as much as it’s helped that of those two hurlers’ shared agent, Scott Boras.

Meanwhile, the Yankees are also dealing with rough springs on the parts of hurlers Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes and a banged-up Aaron Judge. So, don’t let me catch anyone saying all is well.

Winner: Chicago White Sox5 of 8

Pedro GrifolNuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images

As to that other black-and-white team that occasionally wears pinstripes, the White Sox can walk away from the Cease trade feeling like they accomplished their mission.

This, according to a January report from ESPN’s Jesse Rogers, was to cash in Cease and his two remaining years of club control for “multiple high-end prospects.”

The deal they made fits this bill nicely. Per MLB.com’s rankings, Thorpe, Zavala and Iriarte had rated as San Diego’s fifth-, seventh- and eighth-best prospects.

Thorpe, who had only just arrived in the Padres’ system by way of the Soto trade, also cracks the overall top 100 at No. 85. His changeup is among the best thrown by any prospect right now, and it should be a legit out pitch in the majors as soon as this year.

MLB Pipeline @MLBPipelineFor the SIXTH time this season, No. 5 @Yankees prospect Drew Thorpe notches a double-digit K performance.

The 2022 second-rounder has struck out 21 of 51 batters faced for the Double-A @SOMPatriots: pic.twitter.com/kcx3zJLDJx

Iriarte is also a candidate to crack the majors in 2024, while Zavala is coming off a year in which he posted a solid .797 OPS as a mere 18-year-old.

So, in both the short and long run, this deal has a high probability of paying off for the Pale Hose.

Loser: Texas Rangers6 of 8

Bruce BochyNorm Hall/Getty Images

The Yankees aren’t the only team that should be kicking themselves for missing out on Cease.

The Texas Rangers were also in the mix to land him from Chicago, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. He quoted a Rangers person who offered a telling summary as to why: “Have you seen our rotation in the first half?”

Indeed. With Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Tyler Mahle not due back from injuries until the second half, Texas’ rotation will be Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney and then two question marks that, for now, take the forms of Dane Dunning and Cody Bradford.

Partly because of this, the reigning World Series champions might not be first or even second in the pecking order for this year’s AL West title. Per FanGraphs, those slots are occupied by the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners.

Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today reported that Texas isn’t done looking for a starter. But just like the Yankees, it’s heading forward knowing it has one less option than it did before.

Winners: Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery7 of 8

Blake SnellSean M. Haffey/Getty Images

As mindboggling as it is that Snell and Montgomery are still looking for work with two weeks to go until Opening Day, things should be looking up for them now.

It would be one thing if neither the Yankees nor the Rangers had any interest in the two lefties, but that’s not the case.

For their part, the Yankees have been tied to Snell all winter and were even reported to have an offer out to him in February. And with Cole’s right elbow on the fritz, they need the two-time Cy Young Award winner now more than ever.

For his part, Randy Miller of NJ.com reported in January that Montgomery’s preference is to return to the Rangers, for whom he was a key cog in the latter half of 2023. And while general manager Chris Young cautioned against expecting big moves in February, that he subsequently went after Cease might indicate he was bluffing.

The situation is such that Snell and Montgomery might not merely hope to find jobs soon. They might even hope to get the contracts they set out for, namely a $200-plus million pact for the former and a $170-plus million pact for the latter.

Loser: San Francisco Giants8 of 8

Logan WebbAndy Kuno/San Francisco Giants/Getty Images

Lastly, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the Giants were another team that was in on Cease alongside the Yankees and Rangers:

Jon Heyman @JonHeymanGiants and Rangers were among others in on Cease https://t.co/Knez0yNtqs

This isn’t surprising news. The Giants had a need for a co-ace for Logan Webb even before spring training opened, and his performance hasn’t exactly diminished that need.

Frankly, Webb has looked nothing like the guy who finished second to Snell in last year’s NL Cy Young Award voting. He’s given up 16 runs (13 earned) in 11.2 innings, with his fastball velocity down 1 mph from last spring.

That Cease went to the Padres of all teams isn’t the best thing for the Giants, either. It had been a toss-up as to which of them was the third-best team in the NL West. But that edge clearly goes to the Padres now.

The Giants might still fix this by signing Snell or Montgomery. But assuming Boras is as capable of reading the writing on the wall as yours truly, it figures to cost them.