Winning Strategies for All 30 Teams in the 2024 MLB Draft
Zachary D. RymerJuly 12, 2024Winning Strategies for All 30 Teams in the 2024 MLB Draft0 of 10
What should the Guardians do with the No. 1 pick?Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images
The most effective and certainly the simplest strategy in the MLB draft is for teams to just take the best player available.
But what does a winning strategy look like for each team on the eve of the 2024 draft?
Let’s answer this question by taking practicality and needs into consideration. Which players are likely to be available when a team is picking? How much money does said team have in its bonus pool? What does the team lack, both in the minors and in the majors? And what do the franchise’s immediate and long-term futures look like?
The focus here is on Day 1 of the draft, which will go down on Sunday in Fort Worth, Texas, and will cover the first 74 picks. It’s a small part of the entire 20-round affair, but it’s hypothetically where the good stuff is found.
We’ll proceed in alphabetical order by city and go three teams at a time.
Note: All farm system rankings courtesy of B/R’s Joel Reuter.
Arizona Diamondbacks, Atlanta, Baltimore Orioles1 of 10
Mike EliasG Fiume/Getty Images
Arizona Diamondbacks: Leverage That Bonus Pool to Land a Steal
Top Pick: No. 29
Bonus Pool: $12.7 million
The Diamondbacks may only have the 29th pick in the first round, but they also have the No. 31 and No. 35 picks and their bonus pool is the 10th-largest of any team.
It’s possible to imagine them getting a steal on an over-slot deal at any one of these spots. Think something similar to what the Philadelphia Phillies pulled last year with Aidan Miller, who they got at No. 27 even though he was MLB.com’s No. 13 prospect.
Since the Snakes could use pitching in their farm system, one ideal scenario involves a well-regarded prep hurler such as Cam Caminiti or William Schmidt falling to them.
Atlanta: Something Besides Right-Handed Pitchers
Top Pick: No. 24
Bonus Pool: $7.8 million
We get it, Atlanta. You guys like right-handed pitching prospects.
The club has chosen pitchers with all five of its most recent first-round picks, and four of them throw from the right side. Further, seven of their 10 best prospects are righty pitchers.
This is not to imply Atlanta should pass on, say, East Carolina standout Trey Yesevage if he falls their way. But a little variety wouldn’t hurt, even if it meant drafting the one guy (i.e., Mississippi State’s Jurrangelo Cijntje) who can throw both right-handed and left-handed.
Baltimore Orioles: A High-Upside Arm Would Be Nice
Top Pick: No. 22
Bonus Pool: $10.9 million
The Orioles have used seven straight first-round picks on position players under Mike Elias, a group that notably includes Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg, Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser and Jackson Holliday.
Baltimore’s No. 1-ranked farm system is light on arms, however, and it’s a looming problem. Corbin Burnes is only signed for this year, and Kyle Bradish (his first) and John Means (his second) have both recently had Tommy John surgery.
Elias’ history suggests anticipating a college arm if he goes that route, and it would be especially cool if someone like Iowa righty Brody Brecht was there for them. His control is highly suspect, but his plus-plus fastball and splitter are worth dreaming on.
Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox 2 of 10
Craig BreslowBarry Chin/The Boston Globe via Getty Images
Boston Red Sox: How About a Big-Time Fastballer?
Top Pick: No. 12
Bonus Pool: $10.5 million
The Red Sox have built a contender upon young, athletic position players and incumbent pitchers who are unlocking all sorts of achievements under Craig Breslow and Andrew Bailey.
Boston’s pipeline is nonetheless heavier on bats than arms, so that will hopefully be remedied in the draft. To this end, it’s a matter of public record that Breslow likes “stuff” and “upside arms.”
The fun scenario involves the Red Sox zigging where they’re zagging at the majors and going for a guy who actually has a good fastball. Could Wake Forest righty Chase Burns, whose fastball gets up to 102 mph, last to them? Maybe.
Chicago Cubs: A High-Floor Bat Is Needed
Top Pick: No. 14
Bonus Pool: $9.8 million
The Cubs have a history of targeting college hitters who promise to move quickly through the minors, and they have every reason to stick to it this year.
Seen their offense lately? It’s not good, whether you’re talking its .231 average or its 23.9 strikeout percentage. Theirs is also a lineup that doesn’t really have that one guy, and the void will only get larger if Cody Bellinger opts out this winter.
West Virginia infielder JJ Wetherholt likely won’t last for the Cubs, but they could have a shot at James Tibbs, who graced Florida State with a .363 average and 28 home runs this year.
Chicago White Sox: Just Take the Best Player Available
Top Pick: No. 5
Bonus Pool: $14.6 million
The White Sox are a bad team with a good-not-great farm system, so the last thing they should be trying to do in the draft is get cute.
Especially, that is, considering that they won’t pick again after drafting at No. 5 until the No. 43 spot. The top of the draft class will have thinned out by then, so they really need to make that first pick count.
Since they need young hitters more than young pitchers, their best hope is of a top-3 talent—i.e., Travis Bazzana, Charlie Condon or Jac Caglianone—somehow dropping to them.
Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Guardians, Colorado Rockies3 of 10
Chris AntonettiJason Miller/Getty Images
Cincinnati Reds: Don’t Get Cute
Top Pick: No. 2
Bonus Pool: $15.8 million
The Reds may have the No. 2 pick, but their bonus pool is the third-largest after the Guardians and Rockies. Should they look to do an under-slot deal with their No. 2 pick to save money for later?
Such things have been known to happen, but the catch here is that the Reds don’t pick again until No. 51. Like the White Sox, they’d be wise to make that first pick count.
So, let’s make this simple. If the Guardians choose Bazzana, take Condon. If the Guardians choose Condon, take Bazzana. Either way, don’t look back.
Cleveland Guardians: Just Take Travis Bazzana
Top Pick: No. 1
Bonus Pool: $18.3 million
Believe it or not, this is the first time the Cleveland franchise has ever had the No. 1 pick. Exciting times, to be sure, but also nerve-wracking.
There is, after all, no clear choice for the 1-1 slot in this year’s draft. Bazzana is the top player in MLB.com’s rankings, but Baseball America and assorted other outlets prefer Condon, who’s fresh off winning the Golden Spikes Award as a member of the Georgia Bulldogs.
But while there’s no wrong choice, Bazzana is closer to being the right choice for the Guardians. Their farm is light on up-the-middle types, and who doesn’t want to see an elite bat-to-ball hitter like Bazzana team up with Steven Kwan?
Colorado Rockies: Chase Dollander Is Working Out, So…
Top Pick: No. 3
Bonus Pool: $17.2 million
It’s the Rockies who have the second-biggest bonus pool after Cleveland, and also having the No. 38 and No. 42 picks potentially gives them an excuse to not spend it all at once.
As such, it may not be the worst idea to pass on who’s left out of Bazzana, Condon and Caglianone and “reach” for a pitcher. They’re not going to convince free agents to come to Coors Field, so drafting and developing is their only recourse for acquiring impact hurlers.
Using the No. 9 pick on Chase Dollander last year is working out swimmingly, so they might aim to catch lightning in a bottle twice by going for Burns or Arkansas lefty Hagen Smith.
Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals4 of 10
Dana BrownMike Carlson/MLB Photos via Getty Images
Detroit Tigers: They Can Play the Long Game
Top Pick: No. 11
Bonus Pool: $11.9 million
The Tigers haven’t had the best luck in the draft in the last decade or so, but Riley Greene is doing his part to change the narrative and he may not be alone for long.
The top of Detroit’s farm system is headlined by near-MLB-ready types like Jace Jung and Ty Madden, so they might play the long game by choosing a high-upside prep type like Greene, Jung or last year’s No. 3 pick, Max Clark.
To this end, Konnor Griffin out of Mississippi or Bryce Rainer out of California could still be there for them at No. 11. Notably, the former has plus power, speed and arm strength.
Houston Astros: They’re Going to Need Arms Soon
Top Pick: No. 28
Bonus Pool: $5.9 million
The four best prospects in Houston’s system are all hitters, which might come off as a threat to Astros fans who’ve paid the big club even a shred of attention.
It’s been a struggle on the mound this year, and the future doesn’t necessarily look brighter. Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez could both be gone soon, and Cristian Javier and José Urquidy only recently had Tommy John surgery.
The Astros would do well to stock up on arms, in other words. And where they’re drafting in the first round, Cijntje may be their best-case scenario.
Kansas City Royals: Bobby Witt Jr. Needs a Partner in Crime
Top Pick: No. 6
Bonus Pool: $15.4 million
The Royals looked like a team on the rise earlier in 2024, but an issue that always figured to bite them has indeed bitten them: this offense just isn’t very good.
Bobby Witt Jr. is a sensation, sure, but the Royals’ next-best hitter is an aging Salvador Perez. And big-time help isn’t sure to be on the way, as the club’s farm system is one of the weaker ones in MLB.
An impact hitter is therefore ideal, and one who could help sooner rather than later. A college hitter like Wetherholt or Wake Forest slugger Nick Kurtz would fit the bill.
Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, Miami Marlins5 of 10
Andrew FriedmanIcon Sportswire
Los Angeles Angels: Try Something Different This Time
Top Pick: No. 8
Bonus Pool: $13.0 million
The Angels seem committed to a bit that involves using first-round picks on college players and getting them to The Show as soon as possible.
It hasn’t been a total failure, but nor has it been a major success. For now, at least, Reid Detmers, Zach Neto and Nolan Schanuel fit into a niche of merely OK players.
The Angels should try something different just for the sake of doing something different, though someone like Griffin would suit them for other reasons. He has immense long-term upside, which is something this franchise badly needs.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Target Upside While You Can
Top Pick: No. 23
Bonus Pool: $6.1 million
The No. 23 pick in the draft isn’t a high one, but it’s sure as heck higher than the next pick the Dodgers will make. It won’t happen until all the way down at No. 98.
It would make sense for the Dodgers to target a high-upside guy before all the best ones are gone. An arm would especially suit their system well, and there could be some good prep options when they pick at No. 23.
One such option could be Ryan Sloan out of Illinois, who’s already an imposing 6’5″, 220 pounds with a fastball that gets up around 100 mph.
Miami Marlins: The Franchise Needs a Franchise Hitter
Top Pick: No. 16
Bonus Pool: $10.4 million
The Marlins haven’t been known as a hotbed for hot hitting in recent years, and that doesn’t figure to change any time soon.
Underneath a generally hopeless situation at the major league level is a farm system wherein the three best prospects are all pitchers. The best position player is outfielder Dillon Head, and he’s not even a month removed from season-ending hip surgery.
A potential franchise hitter is therefore what’s needed here, and options for Miami at No. 16 could include Tibbs, Tennessee’s Christian Moore or Florida State’s Cam Smith.
Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins, New York Mets6 of 10
David StearnsJim McIsaac/Getty Images
Milwaukee Brewers: Don’t Spend That Pool All at Once
Top Pick: No. 17
Bonus Pool: $13.0 million
The Brewers are another team whose bonus pool overshadows their top pick. It’s the ninth-largest in the draft.
Another thing the Brewers have going for them is four picks on Day 1, as they’ll also pick at No. 34, No. 57 and No. 67. There would be sense in them doing an under-slot deal at No. 17 to save money for the rest.
The situation in the majors should cause them to have their eyes on arms. “Reaching” for Cijntje would make sense, as he’d arguably be a better prospect if he was strictly a right-hander and not a switch-pitcher.
Minnesota Twins: Try Switching the Focus to Pitching
Top Pick: No. 21
Bonus Pool: $12.2 million
The Twins have been favoring hitters at the top of the draft, using 10 of their 12 first-round picks since 2016 to pick up various bats.
This hasn’t proven to be a foolproof strategy, and the franchise is now in a spot where it needs to be thinking about the future of its pitching staff. It may be loaded with 20-somethings, but it’s been on the volatile side in 2024.
It’s possible that Yesavage will fall to the Twins, albeit not likely. If not on a prep hurler, they could chance it with Brecht and hope to team him some control to go with his stuff.
New York Mets: They Can Gamble on Upside
Top Pick: No. 19
Bonus Pool: $9.6 million
The Mets already have a good farm system, and it’s worth remembering that anything they don’t have is something Steve Cohen can buy.
Such things put them in a good position to play the long game with high schoolers, and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com recently hinted at some “buzz” as to the possibility of a hitter.
If Griffin or Rainer lasts to them, then great. If not, Texas-based infielder Theo Gillen’s advanced hit tool and solid power and speed should appeal to them.
New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics, Philadelphia Phillies7 of 10
Brian CashmanMike Stobe/Getty Images
New York Yankees: Athleticism Would Be Nice
Top Pick: No. 26
Bonus Pool: $8.1 million
Remember when a lack of athleticism was a painfully apparent aspect of the 2023 Yankees? Well, history is repeating itself in 2024. They’re notably last in the American League in stolen bases.
This issue doesn’t need to be addressed with the No. 26 pick, specifically, but it should be eventually. Because as much as the Yankees don’t seem to realize it, the game has changed and they’re behind the curve.
The fastest runner in this year’s class is prep shortstop Kellon Lindsey out of Florida, though other burners the Yankees can consider include Braylon Payne out of Texas and Griffin Burkholder out of Virginia.
Oakland Athletics: A College Arm Would Do Them Good
Top Pick: No. 4
Bonus Pool: $15.3 million
The A’s don’t lack promising young position players, whether you’re looking at the majors (Zack Gelof, Tyler Soderstrom) or at the minors (Jacob Wilson).
Things are a little bleaker on the mound, however, as Mason Miller’s wattage only burns so bright on account of how he’s a reliever and potentially trade bait to boot. The A’s need a franchise type, and one who can help sooner rather than later.
The college ranks are therefore their best bet, and the No. 4 pick should give them a shot at Burns or Smith.
Philadelphia Phillies: Might As Well Go Back to the High School Well
Top Pick: No. 27
Bonus Pool: $7.4 million
It seems like most teams have gravitated more toward college talent in recent drafts, but the Phillies have used four straight first-round picks on high schoolers.
Looking back, they come off as good picks. Mick Abel, Andrew Painter, Justin Crawford and Miller are all among the club’s best prospects.
Especially given where they’re positioned in the draft, the Phillies might as well go back to the well. It would be especially fun if they took Arkansas native Slade Caldwell as a potential long-term solution for their center field problem.
Pittsburgh Pirates, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants8 of 10
A.J. PrellerBrandon Sloter/Getty Images
Pittsburgh Pirates: A College Hitter Who Can Help Them Soon
Top Pick: No. 9
Bonus Pool: $14.0 million
With Paul Skenes on board alongside Mitch Keller and Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler still awaiting his shot, the Pirates can feel good about the future of their rotation.
The offense? Less so. Bryan Reynolds is very good, but Oneil Cruz is who he is and recent first-round picks on Henry Davis (No. 1, no less) and Nick Gonzales look like misfires.
They should take the No. 7 pick as an excuse to score an advanced college hitter, be it Kurtz or even Wetherholt if he lasts to them.
San Diego Padres: A High School Pitcher Is a Good Idea
Top Pick: No. 25
Bonus Pool: $9.4 million
If the Phillies like high school players, then the Padres love them. They’ve used all 10 of their most recent first-round picks on prep guys.
They’ve demonstrated some good taste in this regard, as Jackson Merrill is a budding star for them and CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore were good enough to score Juan Soto. As such, they can be trusted to go back to the well.
If they do, Yu Darvish’ and Joe Musgrove’s aging and Dylan Cease running short on control create some sense in adding a pitcher. Where they’re picking, they could have a shot at Sloan or Kash Mayfield, a projectable 6’4″, 200-pound lefty.
San Francisco Giants: If You Can’t Sign ‘Em, Draft ‘Em
Top Pick: No. 13
Bonus Pool: $7.6 million
Just as the Rockies are never going to be able to entice pitchers to come to Coors Field, it seems as if the Giants may have the same issue with impact sluggers.
They did get Matt Chapman and Jorge Soler this past winter, but J.D. Martinez made it clear he wanted nothing to do with Oracle Park. It is a big reason why the team is on a 20-year dry spell with 30-homer hitters, after all.
The Giants must develop their own power. Kurtz would be ideal if he fell to them, especially since they don’t pick again until No. 116 in the fourth round.
Seattle Mariners, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays9 of 10
Jerry DipotoSteph Chambers/Getty Images
Seattle Mariners: Nobody Needs a Plus Hitter Like They Do
Top Pick: No. 15
Bonus Pool: $9.5 million
The Mariners have been gobbling up high school hitters, the likes of whom account for all five of the team’s first-round picks since 2021.
Those may yet pan out, but the Mariners are a win-now team weighed down by an offense that couldn’t hit water if it fell out of a boat. A .217 average and 974 strikeouts are ample evidence of that.
Tibbs, who had 21 more strikeouts than walks in addition to 28 homers, would suit them well if they can get him.
St. Louis Cardinals: Double Down on Arms
Top Pick: No. 7
Bonus Pool: $10.2 million
The Cardinals have mostly preferred hitters at the top of the draft in the last decade, but it’s pitchers who dominate their farm system right now.
This is a good thing in theory, but only right-hander Tink Hence fits the mold of a future rotation standout. As St. Louis’ rotation is currently occupied by 30-somethings of varying effectiveness, this is something that should be remedied.
If not Burns or Smith, Yesavage should be there for the Cardinals if they want to do so right off the proverbial bat with the No. 7 pick.
Tampa Bay Rays: An Outfielder…Or Maybe an Arm?
Top Pick: No. 18
Bonus Pool: $10.1 million
The Rays have tended to go for high schoolers in the first round since 2020, but what they haven’t done much of is use high picks on pitchers and outfielders.
Nick Bitsko is the only hurler they’ve taken with a top-25 pick in the last five drafts, and you have to go back to 2018 and Nick Schnell to find the last time they used a first-round pick on an outfielder.
There’s a decent chance this remains the case, but let’s not pretend like the mound and the outfield aren’t areas of need for the Rays. They’re another team that could probably have fun with Cijntje, or perhaps with toolsy North Carolina outfielder Vance Honeycutt.
Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals10 of 10
Chris YoungSam Hodde/Getty Images
Texas Rangers: Take a Chance on Fallen Stock
Top Pick: No. 30
Bonus Pool: $7.0 million
The defending World Series champs have both the lowest pick in the first round and the smallest bonus pool, and their second pick won’t come until the No. 65 slot.
They’re not exactly positioned to clean up, in other words, so they might as well take a big swing. You know, sort of like how when they went for Kumar Rocker at No. 3 in 2022.
One can imagine the Rangers going for a once-promising prep pitcher whose college career was sidetracked by injuries, such as Ryan Prager, Ben Hess or Jonathan Santucci.
Toronto Blue Jays: The Safe Pick Is the Best Pick
Top Pick: No. 20
Bonus Pool: $9.0 million
It isn’t just the Blue Jays’ major league roster that is in a weird place right now. Atop their prospect rankings are three guys who don’t offer much in the way of certainty.
There’s Ricky Tiedemann, who’s an oft-injured left-hander. Then there’s Orelvis Martinez, who’s serving an 80-game PED suspension. And there’s Arjun Nimmala, who struggled badly enough to earn himself a demotion earlier in 2024.
The situation is crying out for a relatively safe, high-floor player such as Oklahoma State outfielder Carson Benge or Kentucky outfielder Ryan Waldschmidt.
Washington Nationals: Keep Racking Up Big Guys
Top Pick: No. 10
Bonus Pool: $11.5 million
This might be reading too much into it, but the Nationals seem to like guys who stand out in a crowd.
James Wood is a 6’7″, 234-pound drink of water, and the team has otherwise used recent first-round picks on Brady House (6’4″, 208) and Elijah Greene (6’3″, 225). Even the relatively short Dylan Crews, who’s a mere 6’0″, is sturdily built at 205 pounds.
Since these guys fit into a bright-looking future on the Beltway, the Nationals might as well indulge themselves again. Kurtz could be there for them at No. 10, though they could also go for the 6’4″, 215-pound Griffin and his many tools.
