Xavi leaving Barcelona: Bad luck and ropey defending catches up with Blaugrana

A day after Jurgen Klopp’s shock announcement of his impending departure from Liverpool, it was revealed another European heavyweight would need a new coach for next season.

Following a humbling 3-5 defeat to LaLiga strugglers Villarreal on Saturday, Xavi confirmed he would be quitting his post at Barcelona at the end of the campaign.

Xavi’s decision came just four months after he agreed to extend his contract with the Blaugrana until 2025.

While Xavi has pointed to media criticism and Barca’s financial struggles as the reasons for walking away, his team – the reigning LaLiga champions – have slipped off dramatically this season.

In recent weeks, Barca have been hammered by Real Madrid in the final of the Supercopa de Espana, and lost to Athletic Bilbao in the Copa del Rey, while their hopes of retaining the league title are growing increasingly slim.

But where has it all gone wrong?

2022-23: Two trophies but European failure

After a second-placed finish in 2021-22, Barca recruited heavily for Xavi’s first full season in charge, despite their financial difficulties, as they looked to usher in success in the post-Lionel Messi era.

Robert Lewandowski arrived from Bayern Munich, with Barca spending €45million on a soon-to-be 34-year-old to rejuvenate their attack. Raphinha and Joules Kounde also signed in big-money moves, with Andreas Christensen, Hector Bellerin, Marcos Alonso and Franck Kessie joining on free transfers.

Ultimately, their business paid off. Barca won LaLiga at a canter, finishing 10 points clear of Madrid, while also defeating Los Blancos in the Supercopa de Espana final.

Xavi’s success was built on a rock-solid defence: Barca conceded only 20 goals in LaLiga, 13 fewer than any other side, at an average of 0.5 per game. Their expected goals against (xGA) of 33.9 was also the second-lowest in the division, with only Real Sociedad (33.3) managing a lower total. However, that overperformance of 13.9 also suggested that defensive solidity may not have been sustainable.

That being said, Barca only faced 331 shots across 38 league matches – 8.7 per game on average – again, the lowest tally in LaLiga. They faced 56 shots fewer than any other side (Celta Vigo – 387), while they allowed 91 less than Real Madrid (422). The Blaugrana also faced fewer shots on target (109) than any other team in Spain’s top tier.

Going the other way, only Madrid (75), scored more goals in LaLiga last season than Barca (70), though Xavi’s team did underperform their xG (77) despite having Lewandowski in fine form. The Poland international netted 23 goals from a non-penalty xG of 23.8, with an impressive shot conversion rate of 17 per cent.

Yet in Europe, Barca could not get going. They lost three of their six group-stage matches, only managing to win against Viktoria Plzen (home and away), as their inadequacies were shown up by Bayern Munich and Inter. The Blaugrana could not even secure a Europa League place as consolidation, as they lost 4-3 to Manchester United over a two-legged play-off.

2023-24: Misfiring in attack and underperforming at the back

So, where has it gone wrong this season? Well, rather than conceding fewer goals than they should have done, Barca are now conceding more than they ought to have done based on the quality of shots they have faced and opportunities they have given up.

Barca have shipped 29 goals from their 21 LaLiga matches – only seven sides in the competition have conceded more goals so far this term. They are averaging 1.3 goals against per match.

Yet their 23.6 xGA is the third-lowest in LaLiga – essentially, Barca have conceded five goals more than would have been anticipated based on the quality of opportunities their opponents have created.

Barca have only faced 225 shots, which is a total bettered by only Madrid (217) and Valencia (212). However, their average of 10.7 shots conceded per game is already two higher than it was over the entirety of last season.

At the other end, Xavi’s side have mustered the highest xG in the top flight (49), yet they have only managed 43 goals. That is still the third-highest total in LaLiga, but it is a clear and sizeable underperformance.

Even the ever-reliable Lewandowski has suffered. Now 35, he has scored six non-penalty goals from a non-penalty xG of 10.3, while his shot conversion rate has dropped to 13.3 per cent.

All in all, it could be far worse, and Barca have also been hit by injuries to the likes of Pedri and Gavi.

Bad fortune and poor finishing are part of the problem, but ultimately, it is a coach’s job to fix it. Xavi looks to be running out of ideas, so calling it quits was perhaps inevitable.